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Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) has issued second quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting earnings in the range of $2.00 to $2.04 per diluted share—an increase from $1.44 per share in the first quarter of 2025. The company attributes this expected improvement to significantly stronger profitability in its steel operations, where expanded metal spreads and higher average realized steel pricing outpaced increases in scrap raw material costs. While long product steel shipments rose sequentially, flat rolled volumes saw a modest decline due to inventory overhang from imports. Metals recycling operations are anticipated to deliver steady results, and steel fabrication earnings are expected to be lower than the prior quarter, despite improved order backlogs and robust demand from commercial, manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors. Steel Dynamics will release its full Q2 results after market close on July 21, 2025

The United States and Canada are approaching a resolution to their ongoing dispute over steel and aluminum tariffs. Recent negotiations have seen both countries consider new measures, including Canada’s announcement of tariff rate quotas and potential adjustments to its own counter-tariffs, in response to the US doubling tariffs on Canadian metals. These talks aim to de-escalate tensions and restore stability to cross-border trade, which has been disrupted by the increased duties. Officials from both sides have expressed optimism that a mutually beneficial agreement will be reached soon, paving the way for normalized trade and reduced costs for industries reliant on steel and aluminum.

6/10/25 – The United States and Mexico are close to finalizing an agreement that would eliminate the current 50% US tariffs on a set volume of steel imports from Mexico, allowing duty-free access as long as shipments remain within historically based limits. The deal, which updates a previous arrangement from Trump’s first term, still requires President Trump’s approval before it can take effect. This move is part of ongoing efforts by both countries to strengthen North American steel supply chains, prevent tariff evasion, and protect the regional market from unfair trade practices. 

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US carbon steel imports saw a dramatic decline in April 2025, driven by the tightening of Section 232 exclusions and the ongoing impact of global reciprocal tariffs. Preliminary data shows total carbon steel imports fell to 1.53 million tons—a sharp 18.4% drop from March and a staggering 25.6% decrease compared to April 2024. The downturn was especially pronounced in carbon flat rolled products, which slid nearly 30% from March and more than 50% year-over-year, reaching just 338,000 tons. Coated flat rolled imports experienced the steepest fall, plummeting almost 69% to 154,927 tons—marking the lowest monthly total for coated sheet imports since December 2019.

This contraction reflects the significant impact of trade policy changes on US steel supply chains. Year-to-date, carbon flat rolled imports are down 26.7% compared to the first four months of 2024, underscoring a broader trend of tightening import volumes as the US steel market adjusts to evolving tariff regimes and exclusion policies

Gambek Metals
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