Key Takeaways The United States declined to renew USMCA as written on July 1, forcing the pact into a rolling annual review that keeps Section 232 steel tariffs squarely on the negotiating table through 2036. Canada has made removal of sectoral steel and aluminum tariffs its explicit priority, while the...
Nucor holds its CSP HRC base price at $1,130/ton for a second straight week, ending months of increases. With Section 122 tariffs set to expire July 24 and consumer confidence softening, buyers face a four-week test that may define second-half procurement strategy.
A mid-year informational framework for organizing three independent steel market signals - price momentum, demand structure, and trade policy timing - heading into H2 2026 planning.
U.S. manufacturing added about 3,000 jobs in June, a modest gain that contrasts sharply with the 15,000 job cuts recorded a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data highlighted by Manufacturing Dive. Revised figures show the sector actually lost 3,000 jobs across April and May, underscoring how small June gains sit against a backdrop of recent contraction. The employment index in the Institute for Supply Management’s June PMI remained below expansion territory at 49.7%, reinforcing that manufacturers are still cautious on hiring even as headline job numbers tick upward.
Beneath the topline improvement, job changes varied widely across subsectors, with fabricated metal products adding roughly 3,400 positions while plastics and rubber products shed about 3,200. Manufacturing unemployment climbed slightly to around 550,000 workers, yet May job openings jumped about 32% year over year to 529,000, suggesting firms are pruning current headcount while keeping roles posted as demand and cost pressures fluctuate. Separations eased to 277,000, with 180,000 quits and 77,000 layoffs and discharges, indicating churn is cooling even as manufacturers continue to navigate high input prices, tariff concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Industrial robot installations in the United States rebounded strongly in 2025, rising 11% to about 38,000 units after two consecutive years of decline, according to preliminary data from the International Federation of Robotics cited at Automate 2026. Automotive remained the primary demand engine, accounting for more than a third of new robots, while food production and a broad, non-manufacturing segment logged growth rates of roughly 30% and 41%, respectively, signaling rapid expansion of materials handling, mobile and arm-based automation beyond traditional factory floors. With this performance, 2025 ranked as the third-strongest year on record for U.S. robotics, trailing only 2018 and 2022, and pushed robot density to around 302 units per 10,000 manufacturing workers, placing the country eighth globally.
Global industrial robot installations climbed about 15% to a record 621,000 units last year, with Asia capturing roughly 79% of deployments, Europe 13%, and the Americas 9%. Looking ahead, IFR remains bullish on North American robotics demand, pointing to reshoring initiatives, persistent skilled labor shortages, and high turnover as structural drivers for more automation investment across warehousing, e-commerce logistics, life sciences, defense, construction, and food processing. In the first quarter of 2026, material handling robots already represented about 60% of all North American orders, underscoring how rapidly robotics is becoming embedded in supply chain and production workflows across sectors.
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The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated a circumvention inquiry into certain corrosion-resistant steel products completed in Thailand using Chinese-origin hot-rolled or cold-rolled steel and then exported to the United States. The proceeding examines whether these Thai-finished flat-rolled CORE products are effectively bypassing existing antidumping and countervailing duty orders on corrosion-resistant steel from China, which have been in place since earlier trade remedy actions. As part of the initiation, Commerce is defining the scope to cover flat-rolled steel clad, plated, or coated with corrosion-resistant metals, including zinc and aluminum-based alloys, whether or not further processed by corrugating, painting, laminating, or other surface treatments.policyrisk
This inquiry signals heightened scrutiny on supply chains that route Chinese steel through third countries, and it could lead to extended duties that capture Thai-processed CORE made from Chinese substrate. Importers and downstream manufacturers face potential cash deposit requirements and continued suspension of liquidation if Commerce preliminarily finds circumvention, with statutory timelines guiding a preliminary determination within months of the Federal Register notice. For U.S. steel producers, the action aligns with ongoing efforts to preserve the effectiveness of existing trade remedies, ensuring that prior antidumping and countervailing duty orders on Chinese corrosion-resistant steel are not undermined by indirect export strategies.
American Iron and Steel Institute data for June 2026 shows that U.S. mills have trimmed weekly raw steel production slightly from recent highs, though overall output remains higher than a year earlier. Capability utilization has dipped modestly from early June peaks, yet continues to sit near the low‑80 percent range, indicating that producers are still running at relatively strong rates despite the week‑to‑week slippage.
Year to date figures point to a solid rebound in domestic steelmaking, with total tonnage up by more than six percent compared with the same period in 2025 as mills respond to firmer demand in core markets such as construction, automotive, and energy. Even with the recent cooling in the weekly numbers, trade groups say the industry’s overall trajectory is one of disciplined strength rather than a sharp slowdown, as producers adjust output incrementally instead of cutting capacity on a large scale.
The United States is expected to announce that it will not renew the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, triggering a structured timeline that could bring the long standing North American trade framework to an end by 2036. The move activates a built in review process while officials from all three countries prepare for renewed negotiations over the future of the pact. Despite the announcement, discussions will continue, with a focus on revising key provisions rather than immediately dismantling the agreement.
Current negotiations highlight major disagreements, particularly around automotive manufacturing rules and efforts to limit indirect access for Chinese goods. The U.S. is pushing for higher domestic content requirements, while Mexico appears open to compromise on stricter standards. Canada remains on the sidelines of formal talks for now, as separate trade tensions persist. Although uncertainty surrounds the outcome, all parties appear aligned on the need to reshape the agreement rather than abandon it outright.
U.S. Steel is committing roughly 475 million dollars to install a new quench and temper line at its Fairfield Tubular Operations in Alabama, significantly expanding its ability to produce higher grade, heat treated tubular products for the energy and industrial markets. The investment is aimed at strengthening domestic supply of oil country tubular goods and other premium pipe, positioning the facility to capture growing demand for American made steel in drilling and infrastructure projects.
The project also includes upgrades to plant infrastructure and employee amenities, plus a new training center that incorporates virtual reality tools to improve both technical skills and safety readiness. Once the line is completed and ramped up, U.S. Steel expects efficiency gains, greater product consistency, and more flexibility in its tubular product mix, with full production targeted before the end of the decade.
U.S. Steel is moving forward with a new hot strip mill at its Edgar Thomson plant in the Mon Valley, a line that will replace rolling equipment dating back to 1938. President and chief executive officer David Burritt said the project is designed to expand the steelmaker’s rolling capabilities and modernize a facility that has operated for decades, positioning the Pittsburgh-area works for higher-quality output as the company integrates investment plans tied to its Nippon Steel ownership.
Steel Dynamics is finding strong early demand for its new aluminum business, with chief executive officer Mark Millett reporting that customers are not just accepting the company’s aluminum but actively embracing it. The comments signal momentum for Aluminum Dynamics as Steel Dynamics builds out flat-rolled aluminum capacity, a diversification move that extends the producer beyond steel and into a market where domestic supply remains tight.
SSAB Americas has partnered with The Greenbriar Companies and Alter Trading on a circular economy initiative aimed at keeping recycled material moving back into domestic steelmaking. The project is structured so recycled inputs can be used to produce green steel and then return to the supply chain for new production, linking a steelmaker, a railcar and logistics firm, and a scrap processor in a closed-loop model that supports lower-carbon output and reinforces scrap-based EAF production.
POSCO and Hyundai Motor have launched a joint research project with eight other industry and research partners to develop next-generation electrical steel sheets for electric vehicles and motor technologies. The effort focuses on 6.5 percent silicon-content wide electrical steel and aims to improve EV motor efficiency through integrated work on materials, core fabrication, drive motors, and real-vehicle validation.
The project is supported by South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and managed by the Korea Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology. POSCO is leading the consortium, which the companies say could strengthen the country’s steel and automotive supply chains while supporting competitiveness in the global EV market.
The French National Assembly voted again on June 11 to nationalize ArcelorMittal France, passing the bill with 106 votes in favor and 49 against. The legislation, led by La France Insoumise lawmakers, would transfer ownership of ArcelorMittal’s French steel operations to the state and establish an administrative commission to determine the acquisition value.
The bill previously passed in November 2025 but was rejected by the Senate in February 2026. It now faces another Senate review, though the French government opposes nationalization and ArcelorMittal rejects the proposal. Without Senate approval or government support, the measure remains far from becoming law despite its symbolic significance for France’s industrial policy.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (SDI) has commissioned SMS group to comprehensively upgrade the process automation system at its hot strip mill in Butler, Indiana—replacing aging hardware and legacy models from the mill’s original 1993 installation with state-of-the-art X-Pact® Level 2 technology. The new system integrates advanced process models, modern ProconTEL-based communication architecture, and the intuitive X-Pact® Vision webHMI to enable high-precision rolling, improved strip geometry control, and consistent product quality. Additional upgrades include the X-Pact® PSC® model for optimized rolling schedules and the X-Pact® PCFC model for enhanced profile, contour, and flatness control in the finishing mill, while the CSC cooling model will ensure reproducible material properties and proper strip temperatures. First coil production with the modernized system is scheduled for late 2026, with the Final Acceptance Certificate targeted for early 2027.
The European Union has formally adopted a new steel trade measure designed to shield its market from the effects of global overcapacity. The regulation will take effect on July 1, 2026, when the current safeguard system expires, and it is built around a revised tariff-rate quota structure that cuts import volumes and raises duties on shipments above the allowed level.
The new framework also adds a “melt and pour” rule to improve traceability, making it easier to identify where steel was first produced in solid form. Officials say the measure is meant to support the competitiveness of EU steelmakers, preserve industrial capacity, and keep the bloc aligned with international trade rules.
U.S. Steel has announced a dramatic increase in its financial commitment to modernize the Edgar Thomson facility near Pittsburgh, raising the total planned spending to as much as $2.5 billion. This expanded package more than doubles the original projection and centers on building a cutting-edge hot strip mill at the Braddock location to replace an aging 87-year-old unit at a neighboring site. The company aims to complete the new facility over the next three years, with construction starting later this year and production launching in the second half of 2029.
Beyond infrastructure renewal, the project targets significant improvements in material yields, product quality, and energy efficiency while generating substantial economic benefits for Pennsylvania. Economic analysis suggests the investment could contribute up to $1.7 billion to the state’s economy, support roughly 6,381 jobs, and produce up to $58 million in state and local tax revenue. This initiative represents a key component of a broader $11 billion domestic investment strategy following the company’s recent acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel, ensuring the long-term viability of the historic plant that has operated since 1875.
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) is demanding that the United States scrap its 50 percent Section 232 tariff on steel imports from Canada. The group flagged the one-year anniversary of the tax as a turning point, calling the policy “severe and unsustainable” while urging Washington and Ottawa to dismantle the barriers and rebuild focus on a unified North American steel supply chain that has long fueled US car production, bridge construction, pipeline work, defense hardware, and major infrastructure projects.
Before the trade battle, Canada ranked as the top steel supplier to the US market, yet exports plunged by 60 percent in 2025 after the tariffs hit, putting jobs at risk and hurting communities on both sides of the border. The CSPA says the tax is unwarranted since Canada already runs strict trade controls to keep global overcapacity from China off its soil, and the association is pushing for a joint “Fortress North America” strategy ahead of the USMCA joint review that kicks in on July 1, 2026
A June 1, 2026 proclamation marks the most consequential restructuring of the Section 232 metals tariffs since they were doubled to 50 percent last year. The headline move cuts the rate from 25 percent to 15 percent on certain HVAC equipment, agricultural machinery such as combines and harvesters, and mobile industrial equipment, with the reduced rate running through December 31, 2027, after which products revert to standard rates. But the structural changes matter more to importers than the rate cut itself. Duties on affected derivative articles now apply to the full customs value of the import rather than to the steel, aluminum, or copper content alone, a shift that ends the content-valuation methodology that had caused widespread compliance confusion since June 2025. At the same time, goods made of 15 percent or less metal content are removed from Section 232 entirely, a genuine exemption that eliminates exposure for a meaningful slice of mixed-material products.
For buyers, the actionable detail sits in the new rate structure. Under the new Annex I-C framework, the standard rate is 25 percent, but lower rates are available for USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico, for imports from trade-deal countries, and for products made with at least 85 percent U.S.-melted or smelted metal. For USMCA-qualifying products, the 25 percent rate applies only to non-U.S. content, though total Section 232 exposure cannot fall below 15 percent. The proclamation also expanded the derivative list, adding aluminum lithographic plates and steel racks. All changes take effect June 8, 2026. The combined effect rewards domestic content and verifiable supply chains while raising the stakes on documentation: the difference between the 25 percent floor and the lower tiers now turns on melt origin and qualification status that importers will need to prove at entry.
Worthington Steel has officially completed its voluntary public takeover offer for Kloeckner & Co, securing approximately 62% of the German metals processor’s outstanding shares and marking a major consolidation step in the steel industry . The transaction, which imples an enterprise value of around $2.4 billion, broadens Worthington’s product portfolio, diversifies its end-market exposure, and strengthens its geographic footprint across North America and Europe. CEO Geoff Gilmore called it a “meaningful step forward in our growth strategy,” emphasizing the combined company’s anticipated benefits from increased scale and operational efficiencies . Worthington now intends to launch a Public Delisting Tender Offer for all remaining Kloeckner shares at €11.00 per share, which would remove Kloeckner from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and reduce regulatory burdens while providing greater flexibility for long-term strategic development .
Marine bunker fuel at major ports has risen 60 to 75 percent since late February, while U.S. East Coast to Turkey scrap export freight is up roughly 50 percent and U.S. retail diesel has climbed nearly 50 percent over the same window. The shock traces to a Brent crude move from 71.32 dollars per barrel in late February to a peak of 138.21 dollars on April 7, a 93 percent jump in under 45 days. The pass-through is now measurable in steel: HMS I 80:20 scrap rose approximately 12 percent to 411.50 dollars per metric ton CFR Turkey ex U.S., and rebar CFR U.S. ex Turkey gained 7.5 percent. Even a domestic 75-mile rebar haul has added an estimated 1.50 dollars per cwt, with total pass-through costs approaching 3 to 4 dollars per cwt. Relief is not expected near term, as full oil production recovery could take four to six months or longer, leaving elevated freight as the likely norm through the back half of 2026 and into 2027. Buyers should factor higher bunker-driven surcharges into CFR import calculations and treat any softening in spot crude as a leading rather than coincident signal.
The Office of the US Trade Representative has announced that the United States and Mexico will hold three bilateral negotiating rounds ahead of the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review of the USMCA. The first round takes place May 28–29 in Mexico City, led by Deputy USTR Ambassador Jeff Goettman, focusing on economic security and rules of origin for key industrial goods. The second round is scheduled for June 16–17 in Washington, D.C., covering agriculture and ensuring a level playing field, while the third round will occur the week of July 20 back in Mexico City. These negotiations aim to ensure the USMCA benefits U.S. manufacturers, farmers, ranchers, workers, service suppliers, and businesses of all sizes.
The upcoming review is a critical checkpoint in the trade agreement’s lifecycle, as all three countries must decide by July 1 whether to extend the USMCA for another 16 years or risk entering annual renewal cycles through 2036. Tensions are heightened by the fact that steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico into the United States are currently subject to a 50% Section 232 tariff, making trade conditions a central concern for both nations. This bilateral U.S.–Mexico process runs separately from Canada, though all three parties are conducting domestic consultations ahead of the formal joint review. Negotiators from the United States and Mexico are set to engage in these bilateral talks as part of the collaborative assessment of the United States–Mexico–Canada trade agreement, as announced by the office of the U.S. Trade Representative on Thursday.
Global crude steel production for the 69 countries tracked by worldsteel fell 1.9 percent year over year in April 2026 to 153.4 million tonnes. The decline was led by weaker output in Asia and Oceania, the Middle East, and the Russia and other CIS plus Ukraine region.
China produced 83.6 million tonnes in April, down 2.8 percent from a year earlier, while India rose 3.9 percent to 13.8 million tonnes and the United States increased 9.4 percent to 7.2 million tonnes. North America as a whole posted a 6.9 percent gain, but the global total still reflected broad pressure across key producing regions.
Nippon Steel will convert U. S. Steel’s Košice plant in Slovakia into a fully owned European subsidiary, renaming it Nippon Steel Slovakia s.r.o., with the move effective October 1 to make the site a core hub for its European operations. The company said the facility will support its regional production footprint as it integrates U. S. Steel assets and pursues planned investments, while conditions at the plant and planned upgrades will be monitored as part of the transition.
Despite higher sales in the 2025–26 fiscal year, Nippon Steel reported lower net profit and warned that geopolitical risks and volatile demand, including Middle East uncertainties that mirror pressures facing U.S. producers, are weighing on results and outlooks. Management said earnings were reduced by one-off impacts and impairment effects tied to transactions and equipment problems, and highlighted that reported earnings excluding certain items were roughly 95% lower in affected periods compared with prior benchmarks.
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