Housing and Construction Market Update: Key Drivers of Steel Demand

The U.S. housing and construction markets are navigating a complex landscape of shifting mortgage rates, cautious buyer activity, and evolving economic pressures as 2025 unfolds. February data reveals a residential real estate sector grappling with persistent inventory shortages despite modest improvements, while construction activity shows diverging trends between single-family and multi-family projects. Meanwhile, commercial and industrial construction gains momentum, driven by data center development and infrastructure investments. This report synthesizes the latest housing market trends, architectural billing patterns, and construction momentum metrics to provide a granular understanding of current conditions and their implications for buyers, builders, and policymakers. According to recent data construction is a significant consumer of US Steel mill production. In 2024 construction accounted for an estimated 30% of net shipments by market classification 1. This percentage increases to over 50% on a world wide basis 2. This sector is easily one of the most significant markets to study steel consumption.

Housing Market Index: Builders Face Tenth Consecutive Contraction Month

The February 2025 Housing Market Index (HMI) declined to 42, marking ten straight months of builder pessimism as measured by this key indicator of single-family home construction sentiment. This 5-point drop from January’s 47 reading reflects growing concerns about construction costs, buyer affordability, and economic uncertainty.

Three critical components drive the HMI’s contraction:

Present Sales Conditions fell to 45, down from 49 in January
Future Sales Expectations dropped to 44, entering pessimistic territory
Buyer Traffic remained weakest at 29, underscoring subdued consumer demand

Builders are facing rising material costs due to tariff threats and labor markets that still haven’t recovered from the pandemic. The Trump administration’s proposed 15% tariff on imported construction materials, if implemented, could add $50,000+ to the average new home price currently $513,600 according to National Association of Home Builders estimates. “Right now, builders face a perfect storm of input cost inflation, restrictive zoning policies, and mortgage rates that remain stubbornly above 6%. Until we see meaningful relief in these areas, housing starts will continue underperforming demographic demand.” — Robert Dietz, NAHB Chief Economist

Residential Construction: Starts Plummet as Builders Exercise Caution

January 2025 brought a sharp reversal in housing starts, which fell 9.8% month-over-month to 1.366 million units (SAAR). This continues a concerning trend with five consecutive months of year-over-year declines.

Single-Family vs. Multi-Family Divergence

Metric	January 2025	MoM Change	YoY Change
Single-Family Starts	884,000	-4.2%	-1.1%
Multi-Family Starts	482,000	-13.5%	-3.8%

The multi-family sector’s steep decline reflects tighter construction financing and oversupply concerns in urban markets. Completions surged 7.6% to 1.651 million units as builders rushed to finish projects before spring.

Permitting activity tells a nuanced story:

Total Permits: 1.483 million (SAAR), flat from December
Single-Family Permits: Up 1.4% to 947,000
Multi-Family Permits: Down 2.1% to 536,000

This permit mix suggests builders are cautiously preparing for single-family demand while pulling back from riskier multi-family projects.

Architecture Billings Index Signals Nonresidential Challenges

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) remained in contraction at 45.6 for January 2025, though slightly improved from December’s 44.6 reading. This leading indicator suggests nonresidential construction spending will face headwinds through mid-2026.

Regional and Sector Performance

Regional Breakdown

Northeast: 41.1 (steepest contraction)
Midwest: 43.8
South: 46.2
West: 47.5

Sector Analysis

Commercial/Industrial: 43.1
Institutional: 47.9
Mixed Practice: 46.4

“We’re seeing healthcare and education projects keeping institutional work afloat, but commercial clients remain skittish. Until the Fed provides clearer rate cut signals, corporate expansion plans will stay on ice.” — Kermit Baker, AIA Chief Economist

Existing Home Sales: Inventory Gains Meet Affordability Walls

January existing home sales dipped to 4.08 million (SAAR), down 4.9% monthly but up 2% year-over-year. The market shows conflicting signals:

Key Inventory Metrics

Total Inventory: 1.18 million homes (+3.5% MoM, +16.8% YoY)
Months Supply: 3.5 months (up from 3.1 in December)
Median Price: $396,900 (+4.8% YoY)

While inventory improvements are encouraging, the 6.36% average 30-year mortgage rate continues sidelining first-time buyers. Homes sold in under 30 days fell to 47% from 53% last year, indicating cooling competition.

Dodge Momentum Index: Commercial Construction Charges Ahead

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) surged 5.6% to 225.7 in January 2025, powered by:

Commercial Planning: +4.2% (data centers +37% YoY)
Institutional Planning: +8.7% (hospitals +22% YoY)

“Excluding data centers, commercial planning would still show 13% annual growth. This isn’t just a tech story—we’re seeing broad-based industrial and healthcare expansion that should support construction employment through 2026.” — Sarah Martin, Dodge Construction Network

The housing and construction sectors are critical consumers of steel, accounting for nearly 50% of global steel production. As we analyze the impact of recent developments on the U.S. steel industry, it’s essential to consider the current state and outlook of these sectors.

Residential Construction Trends

Residential construction faces significant challenges in early 2025:

Housing Starts Decline: January 2025 saw a sharp 9.8% month-over-month drop in housing starts to 1.366 million units (SAAR), marking the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines1.
Single-Family vs. Multi-Family Divergence: Single-family starts fell 4.2% to 884,000 units, while multi-family starts plummeted 13.5% to 482,000 units1.
Permitting Activity: Total permits remained flat at 1.483 million units (SAAR), with single-family permits up 1.4% but multi-family permits down 2.1%1.

These trends suggest a cautious approach by builders, potentially impacting steel demand in the residential sector.

Existing Home Sales and Inventory

The existing home sales market shows mixed signals:

Sales Volume: January 2025 existing home sales dipped to 4.08 million (SAAR), down 4.9% monthly but up 2% year-over-year1.
Inventory Improvements: Total inventory increased to 1.18 million homes, up 3.5% month-over-month and 16.8% year-over-year1.
Pricing Pressures: The median home price of $396,900 represents a 4.8% year-over-year increase 1.

While inventory gains are positive, high mortgage rates continue to sideline many potential buyers, affecting overall market activity and related steel demand.

Commercial and Infrastructure Construction

The commercial sector shows more promising signs for steel demand:

Dodge Momentum Index: The DMI surged 5.6% to 225.7 in January 2025, indicating strong future commercial and institutional building activity1.
Infrastructure Investment: The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is projected to generate demand for approximately 50 million tons of steel products, providing a substantial boost to both the construction sector and the steel industry 6.

Impact of Tariffs on Construction Costs

The reintroduction of steel tariffs is expected to significantly impact construction costs:

Material Cost Increase: Analysts conservatively estimate that the 25% tariffs could increase home construction costs by 5% to 10% over the next year.
Project Feasibility: Higher steel prices may affect the viability of some construction projects, potentially reducing overall demand 3.
Supply Chain Disruptions: The construction industry may face challenges in securing affordable steel, leading to project delays and increased costs 4.

Conclusion: Navigating the Complexities of the 2025 Housing and Construction Landscape

As the U.S. housing and construction markets navigate the complexities of 2025, several key themes emerge:

Residential Challenges: Single-family home construction faces persistent headwinds from high mortgage rates and rising construction costs, while multi-family projects confront financing challenges and oversupply fears.
Nonresidential Uncertainty: The Architecture Billings Index suggests nonresidential construction will remain under pressure, though institutional projects offer some resilience.
Commercial Momentum: The Dodge Momentum Index highlights a bright spot in commercial and industrial construction, driven by data centers and healthcare facilities.

For policymakers, addressing affordability through zoning reforms and supporting construction financing could help stabilize the housing market. Builders must adapt to shifting demand patterns and cost pressures by focusing on efficient, sustainable construction methods. Meanwhile, investors should closely monitor commercial and industrial trends for potential growth opportunities. As economic conditions evolve, staying informed about these dynamics will be crucial for navigating the housing and construction sectors effectively.

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