✅ Key Takeaways
- ✅ The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rose 3.4% in September 2025, marking its fifth consecutive monthly gain and a strong sign of continued growth in nonresidential construction planning.
- ✅ Commercial sectors, particularly data centers and retail projects, drove much of the increase, while institutional sectors also grew moderately, with healthcare and public buildings expanding amid slower education and recreation planning.
- ✅ These numbers indicate a promising construction spending outlook through 2027, with large-scale projects entering planning demonstrating developer confidence even amid economic uncertainties.
Brief Overview of the Dodge Momentum Index
Before diving into the September numbers, it’s helpful to understand what the Dodge Momentum Index measures and why it matters. The DMI is a forward-looking indicator that quantifies the dollar value of nonresidential building projects entering the planning phase in any given month. Unlike other construction activity measures, which react to contract awards or groundbreaking events, the DMI captures the intentions of owners and developers-offering a lead time of approximately 12 to 18 months on actual construction spending.
By encompassing commercial and institutional buildings, the DMI provides a window into where the construction market is headed and which sectors are gaining or losing momentum. Though the index reflects market intentions rather than concrete spending or starts, its accuracy and predictive power make it a foundational tool for supply chain management, investment decisions, and government infrastructure planning.
September Sparks Continuing Momentum
The September 2025 Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) delivered encouraging news for the nonresidential construction market, rising 3.4% to 304.6. This marks not only the fifth consecutive monthly increase but also continues a year-to-date surge totaling 33%. For a sector that has weathered economic turbulence and uncertainty in recent years, such data brings a welcomed sense of renewed optimism.
Dodge’s data signals that this momentum is not a fleeting uptick but a reflection of expanding activity in key sectors-especially commercial data centers and retail-balanced with steady institutional building growth led by healthcare. This comprehensive report delves into the detailed numbers behind September’s update, unpacking what they mean for investors, developers, contractors, and policymakers who depend on early indicators to anticipate market trends and allocate resources efficiently.
September 2025 Detailed DMI Numbers and Sectoral Analysis
The September 2025 report from Dodge Construction Network reveals several key trends underpinning the index’s rise.
Overall Index Growth Sustains Positive Trajectory
The index increased from a revised 294.7 in August to 304.6 in September, an impressive 3.4% uptick. This marked the fifth month in a row of gains, illustrating ongoing confidence and planning activity among project owners. The cumulative year-to-date growth reached 33%, signaling that construction planning is recovering robustly after previous periods of hesitation.
Commercial Sector: Data Centers and Retail Lead the Charge
Commercial planning surged by 4.7% in September, driving the commercial component of the index up to 362.5. This gain was mostly fueled by data centers and retail projects-sectors which account for the greatest number of projects planned within commercial categories. Data centers, in particular, have been standout performers, reflecting the growing demand for digital infrastructure to support cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics.
However, other traditional commercial building types, such as warehouses, offices, and hotels, cooled off in activity. This diversification within the commercial sector is significant; it exemplifies shifting economic and technological currents, where digital economy infrastructure investment increasingly outweighs demand for conventional spaces.
Dodge further notes that excluding all data center projects planned from 2023 to 2025, the commercial segment would still be up 44% year-over-year-emphasizing broad-based commercial market strength beyond technology-driven growth.
Institutional Sector Growth Moderates but Remains Positive
The institutional buildings index increased by a more modest 0.9% in September, reaching 323.9. This growth was chiefly driven by healthcare projects and public buildings, reflecting ongoing investments in medical infrastructure and government facilities.
Conversely, education and recreational planning continued to decelerate, signaling a cautious stance in those subsectors. This unevenness highlights demographic and policy-driven forces shaping institutional construction: aging populations, post-pandemic healthcare system strengthening, and public infrastructure upgrades are major growth engines, while school and recreational projects face more uncertainty.
Year-Over-Year Comparisons: Strong Rebound from 2024
On an annual basis, the Dodge Momentum Index reveals robust rebound figures:
- The overall index surged roughly 60% compared to September 2024.
- Commercial building projects rose 53%, or 44% excluding data centers.
- Institutional projects grew a striking 75% over the same time frame.
These increases reflect not just cyclical recovery but also a sustained return of developer and owner confidence, translating into increased project initiation and planning activity.
Major Projects Entering Planning in September
The size and scale of projects entering planning underscore the market’s vitality. Fifty-eight projects valued at or above $100 million began their planning phase in September alone, signaling significant investment commitment.
Noteworthy among these are three sizable data center projects in Illinois, Alabama, and South Dakota, each valued between $300 million and $400 million. Other large commercial projects include $500 million and $360 million developments in Montana and Virginia respectively.
Institutionally, Texas saw the planning of a $246 million school and a $227 million hospital, while a $158 million elementary and middle school complex moved into planning in Connecticut. These landmark projects represent enormous material, labor, and investment opportunities across multiple states and sectors.
Sectoral Project Insights and Emerging Trends
Data Centers: The New Commercial Powerhouse
The ascendency of data centers as a dominant driver is unmistakable. With enterprises expanding cloud service usage and fueling artificial intelligence workloads, demand for these specialized facilities is surging. The large-scale projects entering planning underscore the sector’s growing economic importance.
This trend also ripples through related industries-construction firms, equipment manufacturers, and specialty contractors all stand to benefit from escalating data center construction.
Retail Holding Steady Amid Consumer Shifts
Retail’s inclusion in the growth story is noteworthy, especially given challenges facing brick-and-mortar commerce. Retail projects driving commercial growth suggest that many developers are recalibrating to new retail models involving experiential stores, last-mile fulfillment centers, and integrated service hubs.
Healthcare and Public Building Investment
Institutional planning is increasingly oriented toward healthcare expansion and government infrastructure projects. Demographic shifts, such as aging populations, alongside increased public health funding, help justify this uptick. Hospitals and medical campuses represent complex, high-value construction endeavors, often involving long timelines, making planning-stage data a vital forecasting resource.
Conversely, educational and recreational construction slowing indicates caution. Funding uncertainties and evolving educational needs could be constraining project initiations despite potential long-term demand.
What the September Numbers Indicate About Construction Spending Ahead
Sarah Martin, Dodge’s Associate Director of Forecasting, interprets the data as a clear sign that stronger construction spending is likely to manifest in early 2027. The sustained inflow of projects into planning indicates owners and developers regaining confidence after a period marked by economic uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and inflation.
Martin cautions that while the current momentum is strong, some normalization of planning activity should be expected in coming months. The extraordinary surge earlier in 2025 cannot continue indefinitely, and the market will adjust as capacity, financing, and economic conditions evolve.
Broader Economic and Industry Context
The September DMI movements must be understood against a backdrop of broader economic forces. Fluctuations in interest rates, ongoing supply chain challenges, and inflationary pressures continue to create complexity for developers. The mixed sectoral performance-strong data centers and healthcare versus softer warehouses and education-reflect these nuanced dynamics.
Additionally, geopolitical influences such as trade policies and labor market conditions factor into project planning decisions. Thus, while the index indicates strong planning activity currently, external factors may still shape the shape and pace of actual construction spending.
Implications for Stakeholders
Developers and Investors
For developers and investors, the DMI’s September results reinforce the importance of monitoring early planning trends closely. Sectors like data centers hold promising upside, suggesting portfolio realignment opportunities toward technology-driven infrastructure. Institutional healthcare expansion similarly offers stable investment potential.
Contractors and Suppliers
Contractors can anticipate a strengthening workload pipeline by late 2026 and should use the index to guide capacity planning. Manufacturers of construction materials and equipment should brace for increased demand, especially related to high-value commercial and institutional projects entering the pipeline.
Policymakers and Planners
Local and federal policymakers can utilize DMI data to forecast tax revenues, workforce demand, and infrastructure needs. Planning for healthcare and public building projects aligns with population dynamics and public welfare goals.
Conclusion
The Dodge Momentum Index’s 3.4% rise in September 2025 confirms a robust and sustained resurgence in nonresidential construction planning after months of uncertainty. Commercial growth led by data centers and retail projects, alongside institutional gains in healthcare and public buildings, sets the stage for a strong construction market well into 2027.
While challenges and sectoral variability remain, the substantial number of high-value projects entering planning signals broad-based confidence among owners and developers. Monitoring these early-stage data will continue to provide crucial foresight for decisions across the construction ecosystem.
As we look forward, strategic planning and agile response to these trends will be essential for stakeholders to capitalize on emerging opportunities and navigate evolving market realities.
SOURCES
Dodge Momentum Index Increases 3% in September
https://www.construction.com/company-news/dodge-momentum-index-increases-3-in-september/
Dodge Construction News
https://www.construction.com/construction-news/
Dodge Momentum Index – September 2025 (YouTube Video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQtwMz6z7MY
Commercial and Institutional Planning Strengthen in September, Dodge Reports
https://www.usglassmag.com/commercial-and-institutional-planning-strengthen-in-september-dodge-reports/
Dodge Momentum Index ticks higher in September
https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/2025/10/09/dodge-momentum-index-ticks-higher-in-september/
Dodge Momentum Index Climbs in September as Data Centers and Healthcare Drive Growth
https://dcd.com/articles/dodge-momentum-index-climbs-in-september-as-data-centers-healthcare-drive-growth/
Dodge Momentum Index Points to Stronger Construction Activity
https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2025/september/dodge-momentum-index-points-to-stronger-construction-activity
Dodge Momentum Index rises 3% in September, driven by Data Centers and Retail (LinkedIn)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/chris-noble-648681_dodge-momentum-index-september-2025-activity-7382075335019823105-4G11
Dodge Momentum Index | Gerdau Website (Historical context)
http://www2.gerdau.com/market-update/dodge-momentum-index-9
Check out our most recent articles below:
- Dodge Momentum Index Inches Up For the 5th Consecutive Month
- Nucor Holds Steel Pricing Steady Two Months Straight
- 📘 [New Ebook] Stoicism: Ancient Philosophy Offers Modern Solutions
- Nucor Holds CSP Price Steady For Seventh Week
- U.S. Steel Imports Drop to Record Lows
📬 Enjoying this article? Do not miss the next one.
SUBSCRIBE below to the Steel Industry News email newsletter to get the latest updates delivered straight to your inbox. Includes a comprehensive reporting of all key topics impacting the steel industry. 🌍The Most Recent Steel News Reports – in one easy-to-read weekly format
🔐 Annual Plan: Just $126/year – that’s 7+ months free (a 58% discount compared to monthly)
