✅ Key Takeaways
✅ The Dodge Momentum Index declined 7.1% in October 2025 to 283.3, marking the first decline in six months
✅ While commercial planning remains resilient with data centers and retail driving continued momentum, institutional planning (education and healthcare) showed significant slowdown, declining 15.2% after recent strong growth
✅ Construction material costs and labor expenses are rising, inflating the overall DMI trend; industry experts predict continued deceleration in 2026 as macroeconomic headwinds mount despite solid underlying activity
Introduction: The Dodge Momentum Index as a Leading Indicator for Construction Spending
The construction industry operates on a complex timeline where today’s planning decisions directly translate into tomorrow’s spending and economic activity. Among the most important tools for understanding this forward-looking activity is the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), a comprehensive measure published by Dodge Construction Network that tracks the dollar value of nonresidential building projects entering the planning phase each month.
As a leading economic indicator, the Dodge Construction Index serves a critical function: it provides advance notice of future construction spending patterns by capturing projects before they break ground. Industry researchers have found that the DMI leads actual construction spending by approximately 12 to 18 months, making it invaluable for forecasting economic activity across the broader economy. When the index rises, it signals that developers and property owners are moving forward with projects, suggesting confidence in future economic conditions and real estate markets.
The October 2025 data release revealed some important nuances about the construction planning momentum that have significant implications for the months and years ahead. After reaching record-breaking levels in recent months, the Dodge Momentum Index experienced its first notable pullback, providing a reality check about the sustainability of the construction boom and the underlying economic factors shaping development decisions.
Understanding the Dodge Momentum Index: How It Works and What It Measures
The Dodge Momentum Index is far more than just a number – it represents a sophisticated monthly assessment of real economic decision-making by developers, property owners, and institutional investors across the United States. To understand the significance of the October 2025 reading and what it means for the construction industry and broader economy, it’s helpful to understand how the index works.
The index operates by collecting data on the value of nonresidential building projects that enter the planning phase each month. It focuses specifically on projects valued under $500 million, intentionally excluding mega-projects that could create outsized volatility, while also excluding manufacturing and transportation facilities from the calculation. The DMI uses a three-month moving average of this project value data and then indexes it back to the year 2000 as a base year.
This methodology creates a smooth, comparable measure that tracks commercial building planning momentum over time. When expressed as a point score, the index allows analysts to see month-to-month changes and year-over-year comparisons in a way that makes trends immediately apparent. The October 2025 reading of 283.3 represents a specific dollar value of projects entering planning, expressed relative to the 2000 baseline.
What makes the Dodge Momentum Index particularly valuable is not just what it measures, but when it measures it. By capturing projects in their earliest planning stages, the index provides a leading indicator of construction activity. Since projects typically take 12-18 months from planning to actual construction spending, rising DMI readings today signal that construction spending will be stronger in the coming months. Conversely, declining readings suggest that future construction activity may slow.
The October 2025 Decline: Breaking a Six-Month Winning Streak
October 2025 delivered a significant turning point for construction planning momentum. After an extraordinary run of growth through the summer and early fall, the Dodge Construction Index decreased 7.1% from September’s upwardly revised reading of 304.8 to 283.3 in October. This marked the first decline in six months, ending a remarkable period of nearly vertical growth.
While a single month’s decline might seem modest in isolation, this reversal carries substantial significance for several reasons. First, it reflects what industry analysts have long expected: the unsustainable pace of growth seen in July, August, and September was unlikely to continue indefinitely. The summer surge represented a convergence of multiple factors, including developers moving forward with projects they had delayed while watching tariff policy uncertainty unfold, and an unprecedented building boom in data centers driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing investments.
Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, characterized the October slowdown in context: “After several months of record-breaking levels, planning momentum slowed in October. Activity remains solid across the board, especially for data centers and hospitals. However, recent growth should not solely be attributed to gains in real activity. Anticipated increases in labor and material costs are also driving up project expenses and are inflating the overall trend in the DMI.”
This assessment highlights a crucial distinction between volume growth and value growth. Much of the dramatic increase shown in recent DMI readings reflects not just more projects entering planning, but higher project costs. As construction costs continue to escalate due to tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and other key materials, the dollar value of projects climbs even if the number of projects or the scope of work hasn’t changed proportionally. This cost inflation is reflected in the DMI, creating an important interpretive challenge for industry analysts.
Breaking Down the October Decline by Sector
The October decrease was not distributed evenly across the commercial and institutional segments. Commercial building planning declined only modestly by 2.9%, suggesting that commercial developers maintained relatively steady momentum despite the overall pullback. The institutional segment, however, experienced a sharper contraction of 15.2%, indicating that planned institutional facilities – primarily education, healthcare, and public buildings – have cooled more substantially after recent surges.
This split in performance between commercial and institutional planning reveals important underlying trends in the construction market. Commercial activity has been buoyed primarily by data center investments, which remain robust as companies race to build the computing infrastructure required for artificial intelligence applications. Retail also continued contributing to commercial momentum. These sectors have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite concerns about economic growth and consumer confidence.
Institutional planning, by contrast, has shown more volatility. Education and healthcare sectors, which experienced sharp increases in late summer, evidenced more pronounced slowdown in October. This volatility likely reflects the episodic nature of institutional project planning, where large-scale decisions by school districts, universities, and healthcare systems can create lumpy month-to-month patterns.
The Data Center Story: An Engine of Commercial Planning Momentum
Any comprehensive discussion of current construction planning trends must contend with the data center phenomenon. The emergence of data centers as the dominant driver of commercial building planning represents one of the most significant shifts in construction market dynamics in recent years.
The growth has been extraordinary in scope. From July through October 2025, data center projects have continuously contributed outsized growth to the Dodge Momentum Index. In July alone, data center construction starts reached a record $14 billion, more than double the previous monthly record. This represents a shift in the fundamental composition of construction activity, as artificial intelligence infrastructure and cloud computing capacity have become major capital allocation priorities for technology companies.
The scale of individual data center projects has also evolved dramatically. The average cost to build a data center has climbed to approximately $220 million per facility, with some megaprojects exceeding $500 million in value. These large facilities require sophisticated power infrastructure, cooling systems, security measures, and connectivity – all of which contribute to construction complexity and cost. Geographic concentration has emerged as well, with Louisiana, Texas, and Virginia leading in data center investment, driven by factors such as available electrical capacity, land costs, and regulatory environments.
What’s particularly noteworthy is the dependency of commercial planning momentum on data center growth. During September 2025, commercial planning showed only a 0.5% increase when data center projects were removed from the calculation, compared to the headline growth when they were included. This concentration risk is significant: if data center investment were to moderate, commercial planning momentum would decline substantially. For now, industry observers expect data center growth to continue at elevated levels through 2026, but concerns about electrical grid capacity, construction costs, and supply chain constraints for specialized equipment could eventually temper growth.
Commercial Real Estate Challenges: Office, Warehouse, and Retail Dynamics
While data centers have captured attention and driven aggregate growth numbers, the broader commercial real estate construction market has presented a more mixed picture. Different commercial property types are experiencing divergent trends, reflecting the uneven nature of the post-pandemic commercial landscape.
Office building construction continues its troubled trajectory. Despite scattered initiatives around office conversions and return-to-office mandates from major employers, office construction remains depressed. Office vacancy rates nationally remained near 18.6% in 2025, far above historical norms, making new office development economically unviable in most markets. As a result, office is attracting minimal planning activity. The structural shift toward hybrid and remote work arrangements has fundamentally altered demand for traditional office space, and the market has not yet stabilized at a new equilibrium.
Warehouse construction similarly slowed considerably during October. After years of extraordinary growth driven by e-commerce expansion, warehouse development peaked in 2022 and has contracted sharply since. October’s data showed warehouses declining in planning momentum, consistent with a broader market reality: e-commerce logistics networks built out aggressively in 2020-2022 created excess capacity that continues to work through the market. Commercial real estate analysts expect warehouse spending to continue declining through 2025, with only a modest rebound expected in 2026 as vacancy rates normalize.
Retail construction, conversely, has maintained surprising strength, emerging as a bright spot in commercial planning. Retail projects, including both traditional shopping centers and mixed-use developments with retail components, have continued to enter planning at healthy levels. This likely reflects a combination of factors: the relative stabilization of retail after pandemic-induced disruption, the success of experiential retail concepts that draw foot traffic, and strategic infill retail development in growing markets.
The commercial landscape illustrates a broader economic principle: construction doesn’t happen uniformly. Instead, capital flows toward the sectors and locations where economic fundamentals support development. In 2025, those fundamentals favor data centers overwhelmingly, while traditional office and excessive warehouse capacity create headwinds.
Institutional Sector Planning: Healthcare and Education Drive Activity
The institutional segment of the Dodge Momentum Index tracks planned construction activity for facilities serving public functions: hospitals and healthcare systems, education facilities at all levels, public buildings, and recreational facilities. October’s 15.2% decline in institutional planning represented a notable pullback after months of strong growth in healthcare and education.
Healthcare construction has proven resilient across the construction landscape. Planned hospital projects, medical office buildings, and clinical facilities have maintained strong momentum even as other sectors have cooled. The driver is straightforward: aging demographics create sustained demand for healthcare capacity regardless of economic conditions. Hospital systems are modernizing aging facilities, expanding to meet growing patient populations, and investing in advanced medical technologies. The 2025 Hospital Construction Survey indicated that healthcare organizations plan substantial increases in capital allocation to renovation (up to 37% of hospital capital budgets), infrastructure upgrades, and new facility construction.
Major hospital projects valued at $200 million to $400 million have consistently entered planning throughout 2025. A $400 million medical building project in San Diego and a $260 million science complex in Philadelphia are representative of the scale of healthcare and research facility development underway. These projects reflect long-term planning cycles and budget approval processes at healthcare organizations that are less cyclical than commercial real estate development.
Education facilities represent another major component of institutional planning momentum, though October’s data showed more substantial slowdown in this sector. Elementary schools, high schools, universities, and specialized educational facilities have all entered planning phases, often funded through bond measures and state appropriations. The nation’s aging K-12 school facilities and growing student populations in certain regions have created substantial renovation and replacement needs. Texas education projects alone include multiple school expansion projects, with combined investment exceeding $500 million approved for new construction.
Universities and community colleges have similarly engaged in significant facilities planning. Michigan State University’s $340 million Engineering and Digital Innovation Center, designed to support advanced manufacturing and quantum computing programs, exemplifies the scale of higher education capital investment. These projects reflect institutional recognition that modern, technology-enabled facilities are necessary to attract students, faculty, and research funding.
The institutional sector’s 15.2% October decline likely reflects timing and project cycle factors rather than fundamental weakness in demand for healthcare and education facilities. These institutions make planning and funding decisions on longer timelines than commercial developers, creating month-to-month volatility that may not reflect underlying trends.
Material Costs and the Inflation Shadow Over Construction Planning
A crucial interpretive challenge in reading the October 2025 Dodge Momentum Index data relates to the role of rising material costs and labor expenses in inflating the dollar values captured by the index. As Sarah Martin the Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network emphasized in her October commentary, recent growth should not be attributed solely to increased real activity – expanded construction scope and volume – but rather partly to anticipated cost increases that developers are incorporating into project budgets.
This distinction matters enormously. If a developer accelerates a project plan to lock in current material prices before anticipated tariff increases, or if rising projected costs cause them to include contingency budgets in project estimates, the dollar value of the project entering planning increases. From the DMI perspective, this registers as growth, but it doesn’t necessarily reflect additional construction volume or scope.
Construction material costs surged throughout 2025, driven primarily by trade tariffs. Steel and aluminum tariffs reached 50%, copper tariffs climbed to 50%, and broader tariffs affected most imported materials. Industry data showed:
- Structural steel pricing up nearly 10% since the start of 2025
- Copper pipe pricing up more than 30% in 2025
- Wide flange steel up 8-10%, including a $40/ton increase in June
- Electrical equipment costs rising 8-10% due to strong demand and tariffs
- HVAC equipment prices expected to rise 10-12% due to tariffs and demand
These cost escalations forced developers and contractors to recalibrate project budgets. A data center project scoped at $200 million in early 2025 might be estimated at $220 million by mid-year if material costs climbed 10%, not because the project scope expanded, but because the same construction requires higher expenditure. Across the construction industry, this dynamic has been playing out continuously.
Material cost uncertainty also influenced developer decision-making. The famous statement heard repeatedly across construction sites became: “We’ll start the project when prices stabilize.” However, as prices didn’t stabilize and instead continued rising incrementally, developers faced a choice: either wait indefinitely or move forward accepting higher projected costs. Many chose to advance projects, moving them into planning phases while costs remained fluid. This “hurry up and wait” phenomenon, combined with the cost inflation embedded in updated project estimates, created outsized growth in the DMI during summer and early fall.
The October slowdown partially reflects the settling of material cost expectations and the end of the frantic “buy-ahead” activity that preceded major tariff implementations in spring and early summer 2025. As expectations around material costs stabilized, the urgency to move projects forward diminished.
The 12-18 Month Connection: What October’s DMI Tells Us About 2026-2027 Construction Spending
The practical value of the Dodge Momentum Index lies in its ability to predict future construction spending. With a typical 12-18 month lag, projects entering planning in October 2025 will influence construction spending patterns from roughly November 2026 through April 2027.
The October 2025 decline, therefore, suggests more moderate construction spending growth in late 2026 and into 2027. Rather than the exceptional growth rates seen in early 2025 (up 35% year-to-date through October compared to 2024), the industry should expect more modest expansion rates. This deceleration represents a natural normalization after exceptional planning activity earlier in the year.
However, the year-over-year comparison remains instructive. The October 2025 DMI reading of 283.3 remains 52% higher than October 2024, reflecting the powerful expansion of the past year. Commercial planning is up 54% year-over-year (up 43% excluding data centers), and institutional planning is up 49%. These substantial gains, even after October’s decline, mean that 2026-2027 construction spending will likely remain robust compared to 2024-2025 historical norms.
Industry forecasts suggest that nonresidential construction spending will grow by approximately 1.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 according to American Institute of Architects (AIA) consensus projections. These modest growth rates reflect the headwinds facing the construction industry: persistent high interest rates limiting commercial development financing, faltering consumer confidence, labor shortages, tariff-induced cost pressures, and policy uncertainty around infrastructure funding following the expiration of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act provisions.
Key Drivers of October’s Performance: Data Centers, Hotels, and Sector Rotation
Examining which specific project types and sectors influenced October’s performance reveals the concentration of planning momentum in a narrow set of uses. Data center planning remained strong despite the overall 7.1% decline, indicating that technology companies continue moving forward aggressively with AI infrastructure investment. Retail planning also sustained momentum, maintaining a significant share of commercial project activity.
Hotels and warehouses, by contrast, experienced planned activity slowdown during October. Hotel development, which had surged in recent months, cooled notably. This reflects a recalibration in lodging market expectations. After years of strong growth driven by pandemic-deferred travel and tourism, the lodging sector faces capacity questions in many markets. Some previously-planned hotel projects are being reconsidered or downscaled.
Warehouse slowdown, as noted previously, reflects ongoing market adjustment to excess capacity created during the pandemic e-commerce boom. This remains a structural headwind rather than a cyclical dip.
Within the institutional segment, the October pullback was led by education and healthcare planning deceleration. As noted, this likely reflects timing of institutional decision-making cycles and large project completions from earlier planning phases rather than fundamental demand destruction.
Looking Forward: Industry Experts’ Expectations and Macroeconomic Headwinds
What do industry forecasters expect for construction planning and spending in the months ahead? The consensus, while acknowledging ongoing strength in certain sectors, anticipates continued moderation.
Anirban Basu, Chief Economist of the Associated General Contractors of America, characterized the construction economic outlook as cautiously optimistic but tempered by near-term headwinds. “A soft first half of the year [2026] followed by gradual rebound in the second,” he suggested, with eventual acceleration in late 2026 and 2027 as interest rates ease and project fundamentals improve.
Several factors shape this outlook:
Interest Rates and Financing: Long-term interest rates remain elevated, constraining commercial real estate financing and making many speculative development projects uneconomical. Until rates decline substantially, financing availability will remain a constraint on construction project starts.
Labor Availability and Costs: Construction labor markets remain tight despite overall economic softness in some regions. Immigration policy restrictions have limited the supply of skilled construction workers, pushing labor costs higher and making project economics more challenging.
Tariff and Material Cost Uncertainty: While tariff policy was partially rolled back in mid-2025 from initial harsh levels, significant duties remain on steel, aluminum, copper, and other construction materials. Ongoing policy uncertainty creates forecasting challenges for developers and contractors.
Federal Funding Questions: The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which injected billions into infrastructure and manufacturing projects, expired September 30, 2025. Without reauthorization or replacement, state and local government project pipelines face funding constraints. Twenty of the nation’s 25 largest cities face fiscal challenges balancing budgets for 2026.
Economic Growth Concerns: GDP growth has moderated to around 1.3%, below longer-term trends. Falling consumer confidence and persistent inflation above Federal Reserve targets suggest economic headwinds ahead.
These factors collectively suggest that while construction planning will continue, the exceptional growth rates of 2025 will not continue indefinitely. Instead, a more gradual, sustainable growth pattern appears most likely.
The Role of the Dodge Momentum Index in Strategic Planning
For construction companies, developers, suppliers, and other industry participants, the Dodge Momentum Index serves a vital strategic planning function. The index and its components help inform decisions about:
- Labor planning and hiring schedules: A rising DMI suggests that future workload will increase, necessitating workforce expansion 12-18 months ahead of construction activity peaks
- Supply chain and procurement strategies: Understanding future material demand allows suppliers and manufacturers to plan production capacity and inventory accordingly
- Equipment and asset allocation: Construction firms can schedule equipment purchases and allocate heavy equipment to regions with expected activity surges
- Regional expansion decisions: DMI data by geography helps firms identify growth markets where to invest in offices, equipment, and talent
The October 2025 data, showing slowing growth after exceptional summer performance, suggests that companies should expect more measured expansion ahead. Labor hiring timelines should reflect moderate growth rather than the exceptional expansion needed in 2025. Supply chain strategies should assume stabilizing costs rather than the continued escalation of mid-2025.
Sector-Specific Outlooks: Data Centers, Healthcare, Education, and Commercial
Understanding the divergent sector performance captured in the October DMI provides important context for industry-specific planning.
Data Centers: Expected to remain the dominant driver of commercial construction activity through 2026 and into 2027. Industry forecasts suggest 33% spending growth in 2025 and additional 20% growth in 2026. However, concerns about electrical grid capacity, specialized equipment shortages, and rising facility costs (now $500 million to $2 billion for average-sized facilities, and some projects exceeding $20 billion) could eventually moderate growth rates.
Healthcare: Expected to maintain strong momentum driven by aging demographics, modernization needs, and competitive pressures among healthcare systems to attract patients and staff. Healthcare construction spending remained up 2.1% compared to year-ago levels through February 2025 despite broader construction slowdown, and planning activity suggests this trend will continue.
Education: Planning activity shows volatility reflecting institutional decision-making cycles, but underlying demand for modernized facilities, expanded capacity in growing regions, and technology infrastructure upgrades ensures sustained activity. Bond-funded school construction projects and university capital campaigns will continue driving activity.
Commercial (non-Data Center): Modest growth expected with significant sector variation. Office construction will remain depressed, warehouse construction will continue moderate decline before potential recovery in 2026, and retail will maintain moderate activity. Commercial overall is expected to grow 1.5% in 2025 rising to 3.9% in 2026 according to AIA forecasts.
Material Costs and Tariff Impacts: A Structural Consideration
The October 2025 Dodge Momentum Index data arrives amid an ongoing period of trade policy uncertainty and material cost volatility. Understanding how tariff policies influence development planning is essential to interpreting DMI trends.
The tariff implementation process in 2025 created a “buy ahead” phenomenon where developers, contractors, and material suppliers accelerated purchases and project timelines to avoid or mitigate tariff exposure. This front-loaded activity artificially inflated planning momentum earlier in the year. As tariff impacts became clearer and expectations stabilized, the urgency diminished, contributing to October’s slower growth.
Looking forward, several scenarios could influence planning momentum:
- If tariff policies are further modified, eliminated, or clarified, material costs could stabilize, removing a source of uncertainty and potentially enabling more rational project decision-making
- If tariffs are sustained or increased, developers will continue factoring elevated material costs into project budgets, maintaining some cost inflation impact on DMI values even if real activity volume plateaus
- If material cost expectations shift dramatically (upward or downward), another wave of accelerated or delayed project planning could occur
This underscores a key interpretive principle: the Dodge Momentum Index captures not just real construction demand and scope, but also the timing effects of policy uncertainty and cost expectations.
Conclusion: Navigating the Path From Planning to Spending
The October 2025 Dodge Momentum Index decline to 283.3 represents a meaningful inflection point after months of exceptional growth. This pullback, while notable, occurred in the context of sustained year-over-year strength (up 52% compared to October 2024) and continued robust activity in key sectors like data centers and healthcare.
The principal narrative of the October data is one of normalization after exceptionalism. The extraordinary growth seen in summer 2025 was driven by convergent forces: technology companies accelerating data center investments, developers moving forward projects to mitigate tariff exposure, and cost inflation from material price escalation. As these temporary drivers moderated, growth rates naturally decelerated toward levels more consistent with underlying economic fundamentals.
For the construction industry and related sectors, this implies an outlook of moderate but sustained activity from late 2026 through 2027, when projects now entering planning will generate construction spending. The exceptional growth rates of 2025 will not continue indefinitely, but neither should the industry expect a severe contraction. Instead, a gradual, more sustainable expansion pattern appears most likely, constrained by persistent interest rate pressures, labor availability challenges, and policy uncertainties.
The Dodge Momentum Index, by providing advance notice of these trends, enables industry participants to adapt strategies accordingly. Construction companies can calibrate hiring and equipment acquisition to expected workload patterns. Suppliers can align production and inventory with anticipated demand. Developers and owners can adjust planning timelines based on expected material costs and financing availability. In this way, the DMI functions not just as a backward-looking measure of recent events, but as a forward-looking strategic planning tool for an industry that must make substantial capital commitments 12-18 months ahead of actual activity.
SOURCES
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Disclaimer
The content provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. Readers should seek consultation with qualified professionals before making any financial, investment, or legal decisions. We disclaim any liability for losses, damages, or adverse outcomes resulting from decisions made based on the information presented herein.
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