✅ Key Takeaways
✅ Our 70,000+ community is firmly leaning bullish, with the largest group of voters expecting hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices to rise by $50 or more and push above $1,000 per ton over the next 90 days.
✅ When we combine the “up” and “flat” responses, a clear majority of our audience expects prices to either move higher or hold near current levels, with only a smaller group calling for a move below $900 per ton.
✅ We ran this community pricing poll while Nucor moved its HRC price from $950 to $960 per ton, so the results capture live market sentiment as that price increase hit the market.
Community, Pricing, Poll: Why We Asked This Question
We launched this community, pricing, poll because we wanted a clean, honest read on how our audience sees hot-rolled coil prices from a very practical starting point: HRC “now around $950 per ton” and a 90 day horizon that actually matters for real buying and selling decisions. Rather than asking a vague, long range question, we framed it the way our readers think about the market day to day: “Given where prices are right now, where do you think we’ll be by roughly a quarter from today.”
We also chose the timing for a reason. Our poll ran from January 14 through January 21, 2026, a one week window when HRC pricing was already a hot topic. At the start of the poll, the number on everyone’s screen was $950 per ton. During that same week, Nucor raised its hot-rolled coil price by $10 to $960 per ton, sending a clear message that at least one major mill believed the market could support higher levels. We wanted to see, in real time, whether our community agreed with that signal, pushed back against it, or expected prices to simply tread water. By asking our audience directly where they see prices going over the next 90 days, we turned that moment into a structured snapshot of sentiment instead of just a stream of scattered comments.
Our 70,000+ readers include mills, service centers, OEMs, traders, and fabricators, and they are making real decisions about inventory, contracts, and risk every week. When they vote in a poll like this, they are effectively revealing how they intend to behave: whether they plan to buy ahead of expected increases, sit tight and ride a flat market, or slow down purchases in anticipation of lower prices. That is why we take this format seriously and why we are sharing the full breakdown here.
Our January 2026 Community Pricing Poll: The Results
In our January 2026 poll, we asked a single, focused question:
“Where do you see hot-rolled coil prices, now around $950 per ton, heading over the next 90 days?”
We offered three choices and invited a brief explanation of “why” in the comments. Across the poll, we recorded 115 direct votes on this pricing question. Here is how our community answered:
- 115 votes – Up $50 or more, more than $1,000 per ton
- 31 votes – Down $50 or less, less than $900 per ton
- 73 votes – Flat, no or little change, $950 ± $20 per ton
Read in plain language, our community gave a very clear answer. The largest single group expects prices to go up by at least $50 per ton and to break above $1,000 per ton within the next 90 days. That is a strong statement, because it implies that many of you see $950 not as a high plateau, but as a base from which mills can push further. A substantial second group expects prices to remain more or less where they are, allowing for normal day to day noise around $950, but not a major move in either direction. Only the smallest group believes prices will drop by $50 or more and fall below $900 per ton.
When we think about this as a community, pricing, poll, the pattern matters more than the exact percentages. The up and flat camps together dominate the poll. That combination tells us that most of you see the current environment as either solid enough to support an additional move higher or at least stable enough to hold the $950 area. The down camp is an important minority view, but it is clearly not the main narrative. For us, that is the core headline: our readers are not positioned for a crash from $950; they are mostly braced for firmness and, in many cases, further strength.
Nucor Raises Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Again as Market Momentum Builds
Nucor has announced a base price increase for hot-rolled coil (HRC), marking its second upward move in early 2026 as mills look to reinforce recent price gains amid steady order activity. On January 20, the steelmaker lifted its HRC base to $960 per ton, up from the previously flat level of $950 that held for roughly four weeks leading into the new year.
The company’s latest pricing bulletin sets the CSP HRC base price for the week of January 26 at $965 per ton across all domestic producing mills. California Steel Industries (CSI), Nucor’s joint venture facility on the West Coast, will maintain a higher base level at $1,015 per ton to reflect regional market differentials and downstream cost factors.
Market participants view the move as a signal that mills are intent on stabilizing spot prices following a period of cautious demand earlier this winter. After hovering near the mid-$900 range for most of January, HRC prices are starting to edge higher as lead times extend and service centers begin to replenish inventories.
While short-term order volumes remain moderate, sentiment across the flat-rolled segment has improved, supported by a more balanced supply chain and better visibility on February bookings. Nucor’s announcement follows similar tone-setting actions from other integrated and mini-mill producers that have pointed to firming cost inputs and expectations for more disciplined production schedules through the first quarter.
Buyers are watching closely to see whether this latest round of increases gains sustained traction in spot negotiations. For now, Nucor’s coordinated pricing strategy, anchored by consistent mill targets and regional adjustments, suggests the company is aligning early 2026 pricing with a cautiously optimistic view of steel demand recovery.
How This Compares To Our December 2025 Community Poll
This is not the first time we have asked our community where they think steel prices are headed. In December 2025, we ran a broader poll and published a recap under the theme “Where are steel prices headed in Q2 2026.” In that earlier poll, we stepped back and looked into Q2 2026, asking for your view on the overall direction of steel prices in 2026. We also followed that poll with a podcast episode to walk through what you told us and why it mattered.
The December poll gave us a wide angle view. Many of you highlighted uncertainties around global demand, the macro economy, and trade policy. Some of you were already pointing to the role of tariffs, possible supply constraints, and potential infrastructure driven demand as reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Others stayed conservative, pointing out risks from global competition and the possibility that demand might not grow as quickly as some forecasts suggested. As we looked at those December responses, we saw a community that was engaged, thoughtful, and split across a range of outcomes for the full year.
By mid January, we wanted something sharper. Instead of “2026 Q2” we moved the focus to hot-rolled coil around $950 per ton and asked specifically about the next 90 days. In effect, we went from “What do you think about the next 180s days” to “What do you think happens to this exact price level over the next quarter.” That shift in framing is important. Our January results show a stronger willingness to call for a short term move higher. While some of you still see reasons to be cautious, a large number of you looked at that $950 starting point and told us you expect $1,000 or more, not $900 or less.
When we compare the two polls in our own minds, we see a community that has moved from general, balanced Q2 2026 expectations in December to a more concretely bullish near term stance in January. The December poll captured a lot of “it depends, let’s see what happens with tariffs, demand, and supply,” whereas this January community, pricing, poll forced a yes or no style choice around a specific price band. The way you answered tells us that, as 2026 gets underway, you are more inclined to see $950 as a launch point than as a peak.
Our Nucor Coverage: Why We Think Prices Are Under Upward Pressure
In our article on Nucor raising its hot-rolled coil price to $960 per ton, we laid out the main reasons why we believe prices have an upward bias right now. We did not just report the new number; we explained the context behind it and why mills are testing higher levels. When we looked at the Nucor move from $950 to $960, we saw several key drivers: raw material costs, domestic supply and import flows, and the broader market dynamics going into 2026.
On the raw materials side, we noted that input costs have not collapsed. Scrap, iron ore, and other key ingredients remain at levels that do not justify a deep cut in finished steel pricing. From a mill’s point of view, if their cost base stays supported, they need to maintain a healthy spread over those costs to run profitably. That naturally makes mills reluctant to discount too aggressively and more willing to try modest increases when they sense the market can take them. In our coverage, we highlighted that reality as one of the fundamental supports under the current HRC price level.
We also looked at the balance between domestic production and imports. Our view is that a combination of trade measures and reshoring dynamics has kept imported flat rolled steel from flooding the US market at deeply discounted levels. When imports are constrained, domestic mills have more room to manage their order books and their pricing. In our Nucor piece, we discussed how tighter import availability and steady domestic demand helped justify that $10 per ton increase. From our vantage point, this environment makes it much more plausible for prices to nudge higher or hold firm than to tumble quickly without a major shock.
Finally, we talked about demand. While no one would call this environment a runaway demand boom, we are seeing enough activity in key sectors like construction, manufacturing, and energy to support current pricing. When we put all of that together in our article, we concluded that there were solid reasons why Nucor felt comfortable raising HRC to $960 per ton. Seeing our community then respond in the poll with a strong “up $50+” vote confirmed that many of you are reading these same signals and drawing similar conclusions.
How We Read the “Flat” Votes
The 73 votes for “Flat, no or little change, $950 ± $20 per ton” are not just fence sitters; they tell us something specific about how a large part of our community views this market. When you pick “flat,” you are essentially saying that you see enough bullish and bearish forces in play that they largely cancel each other out over the next three months. You are not betting on a crash. You are not fully buying the idea of a sustained rally. Instead, you expect $950 to remain a reasonable anchor, with normal noise but no big break.
We take that seriously. From conversations with readers and from the comments you attach to these polls, we know that many of you see a tug of war. On one side, you see mills trying to lift prices, domestic supply not exploding, imports staying manageable, and raw material costs providing a floor. On the other side, you see questions about end user demand, cautious customers, and the risk that higher prices might quickly dampen buying enthusiasm. Choosing “flat” is often a way of saying “I think the market will mark time and digest these levels before deciding on a new direction.”
For us, that flat group provides balance. When we add them to the up camp, we get a community that leans heavily toward “no major downside from here.” That does not mean everyone is cheering for $1,000+ pricing; many of you are simply braced for a quarter where the market grinds around the current range while both sides test each other’s resolve. In a community, pricing, poll, that nuance matters. It tells us that while the headline might be “most see higher prices,” there is also a sizeable group quietly planning for stability rather than a surge.
Why a Minority Still Sees Prices Below $900 per Ton
We do not ignore the 31 votes for “Down $50 or less than $900 per ton.” That smaller group is important because it reminds us that not everyone in this market is experiencing the same reality. Some of you are closer to customers who are pushing back on pricing, stretching out order cycles, or delaying projects. Others may be more exposed to segments where demand feels fragile or where competition is forcing sharper quotes just to keep volume moving. When you see that kind of behavior every day, it is natural to look at $950 and think, “this is going to be hard to hold.”
We also know that many in our audience have long memories. After the last several years of sharp price swings, some of you are conditioned to be skeptical of spikes and suspicious of any move toward $1,000 per ton. From that perspective, any new push higher can look like the beginning of another short term run that eventually rolls over. If you are worried that inventories will build, that mills will later have to chase orders again, or that macroeconomic news could weaken sentiment, you might reasonably vote for a move back below $900, even when the majority is leaning bullish or flat.
As publishers, we value that minority view because it brings discipline into the conversation. It forces us to keep watching for signs that could validate those concerns: rising inventories, slower intake at service centers, hesitancy among end users, or shifts in macro data. In our coverage going forward, we intend to track those risks closely and to revisit this community, pricing, poll later in the year to see whose expectations were closer to reality.
What This Community Pricing Poll Means For Our Readers
When we put all of this together, our January 2026 hot-rolled coil poll tells us that our audience is entering the next 90 days with a bias toward strength and stability rather than weakness. The “up $50+” group expects HRC to break above $1,000 per ton. The “flat” group believes prices will hover near the current band around $950. The “down” group is smaller, but keeps a caution flag planted at the edge of the field. For us, that mix is important because it reflects not only what you think, but how you are likely to act.
If you are in the bullish camp, you may decide to buy earlier, lock in more volumes, or support mills’ attempts to move pricing up, especially if you believe that replacement costs will be higher in a few weeks. If you are in the flat camp, you might spread out purchases, confident that waiting a little will not drastically change your costs. If you are in the bearish camp, you might keep inventories lean, hold off on large commitments, and push harder on pricing. Our role is to give you a clear picture of how those positions are distributed in the community so that you can better judge where you stand relative to your peers.
We will continue to use this community, pricing, poll format throughout 2026, and we will keep pairing it with deeper articles and audio or video breakdowns. Our December 2025 poll gave us a180 day picture. This January HRC poll gave us a tight 90 day snapshot. While the market strength is not strong the current demand for the next 90 days is sufficient to support the $15/ton price movement. Readers comments in both polls indicate concern about sustainable demand and potential change in tariff policy. Over time, these data points will build a richer view of how sentiment evolves and how it interacts with real world price moves like Nucor’s raise to $965 per ton. We appreciate every one of you who voted and commented, and we will be back with another round of community insight as the year progresses.
Disclaimer
The content provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. Readers should seek consultation with qualified professionals before making any financial, investment, or legal decisions. We disclaim any liability for losses, damages, or adverse outcomes resulting from decisions made based on the information presented herein.
Check out our most recent articles below:
- Community Pricing Poll Points Higher as Nucor Announces a Second Increase
- Understanding 2025 Global Trade: Trade Imbalance, Dollar Devaluation, and Tariffs
- Nucor Raises HRC Steel Price to $960/Ton: Raw Materials, Market Dynamics, and 2026 Outlook
- Nucor Continues to Hold CSP Steel Price for 4th Week: Steel Market Analysis for January 2026
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