✅ Key Takeaways
- ✅ 54% of US steel industry professionals expect moderate price gains ($931-$1,100/ton) by Q2 2026, reflecting confidence in domestic tariff protection and infrastructure spending
- ✅ Section 232 tariffs create a US market pricing floor that insulates domestic prices from global commodity pressure, making this a fundamentally US-focused pricing outlook
- ✅ Tariff durability and US domestic demand are the two critical variables determining whether 65% of optimistic voters are right or whether the 35% skeptical camp’s stagnation/decline scenario materializes
Introduction: The US Steel Community Weighs In on 2026 Pricing
The Steel Industry News community of US steel market professionals has spoken decisively on where they believe hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices are heading in the American market. In the week of December 7th 2025, as US HRC steel prices hovered around $930 per ton at the time – supported by the Section 232 tariffs – we posed a critical question to our audience of domestic steelmakers, steel buyers, procurement managers, and industry analysts: Where do you see steel prices at the end of Q2 2026 in the US market?
With 444 votes cast, the response provides a compelling snapshot of sentiment within the North American steel industry specifically. This is not a global poll. This is a domestic US steel market forecast by professionals who navigate the tariff-protected, infrastructure-driven, domestically-focused American steel landscape every day.
The results tell a story of cautious optimism grounded in realistic expectations. The overwhelming majority of US steel professionals – 65% combined – believe prices will be higher at the end of Q2 2026 than December 2025 levels. Yet this optimism is remarkably measured. Only 11% predict dramatic major rises above $1,100/ton. The dominant view – held by 54% of respondents – is that prices will achieve a moderate rise to the $931-$1,100 range.
This US-focused sentiment reflects a market that is largely isolated from global commodity pricing due to tariff protection, but still concerned about demand sustainability and the political durability of the tariff regime itself. For US steel buyers, mills, and industry participants, understanding this community consensus is essential for planning procurement strategy, capital investment, and pricing decisions through mid-2026.
Understanding the Poll: What 444 US Steel Professionals Predict
Community Poll Results: Steel Price Forecast for Q2 2026
The distribution of votes in this US-market-focused poll reveals sophisticated thinking about the domestic steel pricing outlook. Let’s examine what the data shows:
The Dominant Bullish Coalition (65%)
Nearly two-thirds of US steel industry professionals (287 out of 444 votes) predict that HRC prices will be higher at the end of Q2 2026 than their December 2025 baseline of approximately $930 per ton. This represents meaningful confidence in the domestic US steel market’s ability to sustain or increase pricing despite global economic uncertainties.
What’s particularly telling is how this bullish coalition breaks down. 54% of all votes (241 responses) represent the moderate rise camp – professionals who expect prices to settle in the $931 to $1,100 per ton range by Q2 2026. This represents a potential gain of just 1% to 18% from December levels. This is not exuberant forecasting. This is measured, practical optimism.
The remaining 11% of the bullish vote (49 responses) comes from the major rise camp – participants who believe HRC could exceed $1,100 per ton by Q2 2026. While this represents genuine bullishness, the small size of this contingent is significant. In previous bull markets (2018, 2021-2022), we typically saw much larger percentages of market participants forecasting major gains. The fact that only 1 in 9 US steel professionals predict major rises suggests that even optimists are managing expectations and acknowledging real constraints on price appreciation.
The Moderate and Skeptical Contingent (35%)
One-third of US steel industry professionals – 35% of the vote (157 responses) – believe that either prices will remain flat or decline by Q2 2026. This is a substantial bloc that cannot be dismissed as fringe opinion.
Breaking this down: 17% of voters (75 responses) fall into the no-change camp – professionals who believe the current $930 pricing level represents rough equilibrium that will persist through Q2 2026. These participants see balancing forces: tariff support and infrastructure spending providing price support, balanced against demand concerns and tariff uncertainty creating price headwinds. Their view is essentially that forces cancel out.
The remaining 18% of the skeptical vote (79 responses) represents the bearish camp – participants who forecast declining prices in the $830-$929 per ton range by Q2 2026. This would represent a 10-11% pullback from December levels. These US industry professionals believe that despite tariff protection, headwinds like weak demand growth, pricing pressure from competition, or tariff policy changes could push prices downward.
What the Distribution Reveals About Confidence
The fact that the poll shows 54% consensus on moderate rise, with 35% skeptics reveals something important: significant genuine uncertainty persists about the US steel market even six months forward. In highly confident market environments, we would expect 70%+ of responses to cluster in a single category. Instead, responses are distributed across all four options, with the largest single contingent (moderate rise at 54%) still representing only a bare majority.
This distribution pattern suggests the US steel community views Q2 2026 through a lens of genuine optionality – where outcomes depend heavily on a few critical variables (tariff durability, domestic demand strength, competitive dynamics) rather than deterministic market forces. In other words: the market is still being written; the ending hasn’t been decided.
The US Market Context: Why $940/Ton Today
To fully appreciate what the community is forecasting, we must understand the context of current US pricing at $940 per ton in December 2025.
The Pricing Foundation
The most important context is this: US HRC prices at $940/ton exist almost entirely because of Section 232 tariffs. Without the 50% tariff wall that the Trump administration implemented on June 3, 2025 (doubling the prior 25% rate), US prices would trade substantially lower – roughly aligned with world export pricing.
What does world export HRC look like? In late 2025, ex-US prices hovered around $465-$500 per ton globally. The difference between US domestic prices ($930/ton) and world export prices ($465-$500/ton) is almost entirely attributable to tariff protection and the resulting import barriers. This massive price differential – roughly 2x higher in the US market – represents the value of tariff protection to domestic US steelmakers.
Tariffs achieve this price support through a simple mechanism: they make imports unaffordable. A foreign steelmaker with a cost of $500/ton exported to the US faces a 50% tariff, making their delivered US price approximately $750/ton (500 + 250 tariff). At that price, they cannot compete with domestic producers. Domestic mills can price at $930/ton without fear of import competition undercutting them. The tariff creates a pricing floor and ceiling simultaneously – a floor by preventing imports below tariff-landed cost, and a ceiling because if domestic prices rise too far above post-tariff import costs, demand destruction risks emerge.
The US steel community’s 54% moderate-rise consensus is essentially a vote of confidence that tariffs will remain in place and will continue supporting prices through Q2 2026. The 35% skeptical vote reflects concerns that tariffs could be challenged, reversed, or face political uncertainty that undermines confidence in pricing stability.
Domestic Supply and Demand Balance
Beyond tariffs, the current $940 pricing level also reflects relatively balanced supply and demand within the domestic US steel market. US steelmakers – led by Nucor (the largest US producer), Cleveland-Cliffs, US Steel, and other regional mills – are operating at reasonable capacity utilization levels without extreme shortage or surplus conditions.
US demand for steel comes from several key sectors:
- Construction (data center, commercial real estate, residential, infrastructure)
- Automotive (OEM production, with ongoing EV transition)
- Oil & Gas (pipelines, drilling equipment, infrastructure)
- General Machinery & Equipment
- Appliances and Consumer Durables
- Defense and Government (military infrastructure, weapons systems)
The $940/ton price point roughly clears this market – it’s high enough that domestic mills earn acceptable returns (covered by tariff protection), yet low enough that customers are not radically cutting orders or shifting to alternatives. It’s an equilibrium price within a tariff-protected market.
On our LinkedIn Poll one community member commented “Question is how long can they hold onto these increases. It’s all supply driven at this point. We need to see some demand. Hopefully we see more demand in 2026!”
The US Steel Community’s Price Forecast: Analyzing What Drives the Poll Results
Why 54% Expect Moderate Rises to $931-$1,100/Ton
The dominant view among US steel professionals – held by more than half of all respondents – is that HRC prices will achieve modest gains of roughly 1-18% by Q2 2026. What factors support this optimistic-but-measured view?
Factor 1: Infrastructure Spending as Demand Foundation
The most concrete reason for moderate bullishness is US infrastructure spending. Both the Biden administration (through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) and the Trump administration (through its stated infrastructure priorities and industrial policy focus) have emphasized substantial spending on American infrastructure.
This infrastructure spending manifests in steel demand through multiple channels:
- Federal Transportation Projects: Highway reconstruction, bridge maintenance and replacement, airport infrastructure – all steel-intensive
- Water and Wastewater Infrastructure: Pipe manufacturing, treatment plant construction, pumping stations
- Power Generation and Transmission: Grid modernization, renewable energy installations, transmission line upgrades
- Broadband Infrastructure: Conduit, pole infrastructure, data center construction
- Rail and Transit: Amtrak improvements, urban transit expansion, freight rail investment
The American Iron and Steel Institute and industry analysts estimate that US steel demand will grow approximately 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, driven substantially by infrastructure spending. While this growth rate may seem modest, it’s significant in the context of a stable or slowly declining global steel market. US growth is a bright spot.
For the 54% moderate-rise camp, infrastructure spending provides a fundamental demand tailwind that supports the argument for higher prices through Q2 2026. As long as infrastructure money is being spent, steel demand has a floor.
Factor 2: Tariff Durability and Import Protection
The second pillar supporting moderate bullishness is confidence that Section 232 tariffs will remain in place through Q2 2026. The 50% tariff rate implemented in June 2025 created a protective barrier for US steelmakers. While there are legal challenges to Section 232 authority ongoing in courts, the community appears to believe that tariffs will persist at current levels through at least mid-2026.
This tariff confidence is crucial because it means the $930+ pricing can be maintained regardless of global commodity price movements. As long as tariffs prevent foreign imports from undercutting domestic prices, US mills can defend pricing even if the global steel market weakens.
The 54% who expect moderate rises are implicitly betting that not only will tariffs remain, but that the US domestic market strength will be sufficient to push prices modestly higher, capturing some pricing power as demand grows and tariffs continue shielding mills from import competition.
Factor 3: Domestic Steel Mill Profitability and Production
US steelmakers – particularly Nucor, the industry leader – have demonstrated pricing discipline and capacity management that supports price stability. Nucor’s announcement of its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) program exemplifies a strategy of maintaining pricing power in a competitive market.
When steelmakers operate at reasonable profitability, they’re incentivized to maintain pricing discipline (not slash prices to capture volume) and to manage capacity thoughtfully (not race to the bottom with excess production). The moderate-rise camp appears confident that US steelmakers will maintain this pricing discipline through Q2 2026, supporting gradual price appreciation as demand grows.
Why 18% Expect Declining Prices Below $830/Ton
In contrast, the 18% bearish contingent forecasting prices declining to the $830-$929 range sees a different picture of the US steel market by Q2 2026. What concerns drive this bearish view?
Bearish Factor 1: Tariff Uncertainty and Political Risk
The single largest risk to US steel pricing is tariff reversibility. Section 232 tariffs were initially challenged in court, remain subject to legal challenges, and face policy uncertainty depending on administration changes or political shifts.
If tariffs were repealed or substantially reduced, US prices would collapse toward world export pricing ($465-500/ton). Even if this “catastrophic” scenario doesn’t materialize, tariff uncertainty itself creates pricing pressure. Customers contemplating long-term contracts wonder if tariffs will persist. Some diversify sourcing to reduce tariff dependency. This uncertainty can suppress demand and suppress pricing power.
The 18% bearish vote reflects professionals who believe that tariff uncertainty could materialize into pricing pressure by Q2 2026, or that political events could undermine tariff durability in ways that hurt pricing.
Bearish Factor 2: Demand Growth May Disappoint
While infrastructure spending is real, the bearish camp worries that infrastructure spending may not translate into robust steel demand growth. Several concerns:
- Construction Weakness: Despite infrastructure spending, private commercial real estate construction has slowed. Vacancy rates are elevated in office and retail segments. If corporate real estate investment disappoints, steel demand from construction weakens.
- Automotive Sector Uncertainty: US automotive production is in transition due to EV adoption. Uncertainty about EV ramp rates, electric vehicle steel content (which varies from traditional vehicles), and international competition in EVs could suppress automotive steel demand.
- General Economic Slowdown: If the US economy tips into recession by late Q1 or early Q2 2026, steel demand could collapse rapidly. Recession risk, while not the base case, is material.
The bearish 18% worry that demand disappointment could overwhelm tariff support, pushing prices downward by Q2 2026.
Bearish Factor 3: Competitive Intensity and Margin Pressure
Another concern for the bearish camp: competition among domestic steelmakers could intensify, pushing producers to accept lower prices to maintain volume. If excess capacity exists or if mills compete aggressively, pricing discipline breaks down.
Additionally, downstream industries faced with $930+ steel prices may seek alternatives – higher-strength steel (less tonnage needed), aluminum substitution, composite materials, or offshoring production to countries without tariff exposure. Demand destruction risk is real if steel prices remain elevated.
Why 17% Expect No Change (Equilibrium View)
The 17% no-change camp essentially believes the current $930 level represents pricing equilibrium – where bullish and bearish forces balance. This is a sophisticated position that acknowledges:
- Tariff support provides a price floor (prevents downside)
- Infrastructure demand provides modest growth (prevents stagnation)
- But constraints on demand and pricing power (prevent major appreciation)
The no-change vote reflects professionals who see the market locked in a stable range where external shocks matter more than incremental fundamentals.
What the US Steel Poll Reveals About Sector Sentiment
The US-focused nature of this poll means we’re seeing sentiment specifically from domestic steel market participants. Breaking this down by constituency:
US Steelmaker Sentiment (54% Moderate Rise)
Domestic steelmakers represented in the moderate-rise camp are likely cautiously optimistic about their ability to maintain or incrementally increase pricing through Q2 2026. They believe:
- Tariffs will hold
- Demand will support volumes
- Pricing discipline can be maintained
- Capital investments in capacity and technology will pay off
This sentiment supports continued investment in US steelmaking capacity and modernization through 2026.
US Steel Buyer Sentiment (35% Skeptical)
Steel buyers represented in the skeptical and bearish camps are likely concerned about input cost pressure through Q2 2026. They worry:
- Steel prices may remain elevated ($930+) due to tariff protection
- Their own profit margins face pressure if they cannot pass through steel cost increases to customers
- They may need to accept lower margins, reduce production volume, or accelerate efficiency initiatives
- Sourcing alternatives (imports, alternatives materials) are limited by tariffs
This sentiment likely influences procurement strategy – buying on dips, seeking long-term contracts at known prices, or evaluating material substitutions.
Service Center and Distributor Sentiment
Service centers and steel distributors who buy from mills and sell to end-users are caught in the middle. The moderate-rise consensus suggests they expect:
- Stable margins as they pass through mill price increases
- Steady demand supporting inventory turnover
- Need to manage working capital as prices drift higher
Sector-Specific Implications of the Q2 2026 Forecast
The US steel poll results carry different implications depending on which sectors rely on steel:
Automotive Sector
Automotive OEMs faced with $940+ steel input costs operate on tight margins. The moderate-rise scenario pushing prices to $931-$1,100/ton could squeeze profitability further, especially for lower-margin manufacturers. This may incentivize:
- Accelerated vehicle light weighting (reducing steel tonnage per vehicle)
- Increased use of high-strength steel (less tonnage for same strength)
- EV production (which may have different steel content profiles)
- Nearshoring of production to avoid tariff exposure
Construction and Infrastructure
Infrastructure and construction sectors benefit directly from infrastructure spending. Moderate price rises are manageable for projects with government backing. However, private commercial real estate may face margin pressure if steel prices rise while property values stagnate.
Oil and Gas
Energy infrastructure demand for steel (pipelines, drilling equipment, refinery infrastructure) will likely remain steady through Q2 2026. Moderate price rises are expected and typically built into project economics.
General Machinery and Equipment
Industrial equipment manufacturers are sensitive to steel input costs. Moderate price rises may be passed through to customers, but pricing power varies by market segment and competitive intensity.
Appliances and Consumer Durables
Appliance manufacturers compete in global markets and may face margin pressure if US steel costs rise due to tariffs while competing products from lower-tariff regions remain cheap. May accelerate offshoring or use of alternatives.
Conclusion: What the US Steel Community Poll Means for 2026
The Steel Industry News December 2025 poll of 444 US steel industry professionals reveals a market in measured optimism with meaningful uncertainty. The dominant 54% moderate-rise consensus – expecting prices in the $931-$1,100 range by Q2 2026 – reflects confidence in tariff persistence and infrastructure-driven demand growth.
However, the 35% skeptical vote (combining no-change and bearish camps) represents a substantial contingent who question whether tariff durability will hold, whether demand will prove sufficient, or whether competitive pressures could pull prices downward.
Key Takeaways for Navigating 2026
For Procurement Managers: Plan budgets assuming prices in the $950-$1,000 range, but maintain flexibility to adjust if tariff or demand developments surprise you. Lock in multi-quarter contracts at known prices where possible.
For Steelmakers: The poll supports pricing discipline and modest confidence in capital investment. However, monitor tariff durability continuously – this is your primary pricing support. Maintain operational flexibility in case demand disappoints.
For Industry Observers: The US steel market for Q2 2026 will largely be determined by two variables: tariff persistence and US domestic demand strength. Neither is guaranteed. Monitor both closely.
The 444 voices in this poll represent collective wisdom from professionals who navigate the US steel market daily. They’re cautiously optimistic but not blind to risks. They believe in tariff protection and infrastructure-driven growth, but acknowledge genuine uncertainty about how 2026 will unfold. That balanced perspective is valuable guidance as the US steel industry heads toward Q2 2026.
SOURCES
Trading Economics. (2025, December 16). “HRC Steel – Price – Chart – Historical Data.” US Market Data.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/hrc-steel
Gen Steel. (2025, October 10). “2025-2026 Steel Price Forecast.” US Market Outlook.
https://gensteel.com/building-faqs/steel-building-prices/forecast/
The Metals Service Center Institute. “How Did U.S. Section 232 Tariffs Impact Various Industries?”
https://www.msci.org/how-did-u-s-section-232-tariffs-impact-various-industries/
American Iron and Steel Institute. (2025, October 15). “US Steel Demand Forecast 2025-2026.”
https://www.aist.org/
IndexBox. (2025, January 28). “Nucor Adjusts Hot Rolled Coil Prices Amidst Financial Downturn.” US Pricing Strategy.
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/nucors-new-pricing-strategy-amid-financial-struggles/
Mead Metals. (2024, June 13). “How Market Volatility Affects Steel Prices and Order Quantities.” US Market Context.
https://www.meadmetals.com/blog/how-market-volatility-affects-steel-prices-and-order-quantities
White & Case. (2025, June 12). “Trump Administration Increases Steel and Aluminum Section 232 Tariffs to 50%.” Tariff Policy Update.
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/trump-administration-increases-steel-and-aluminum-section-232-tariffs-50-and-narrows
Westfield Steel. (2024, August 8). “What Factors Impact Steel Prices and Supplier Value?” US Market Factors.
https://westfieldsteel.com/2024/02/what-factors-impact-steel-supplier-pricing-and-value/
Price Vision AI. (2024, October 2). “What is Driving the Fluctuation in Steel Prices?” US Market Drivers.
https://pricevision.ai/blog/what-is-driving-the-fluctuation-in-steel-prices/
BCG. (2025, June 10). “June 2025: 50% US Tariffs Steel and Aluminum Impact.” Policy and Economic Impact Analysis.
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/june-2025-update-impact-us-tariffs-50-percent-on-steel-aluminum
Disclaimer
The content provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. Readers should seek consultation with qualified professionals before making any financial, investment, or legal decisions. We disclaim any liability for losses, damages, or adverse outcomes resulting from decisions made based on the information presented herein.
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