✅ Key Takeaways
✅ Nucor raised its CSP HRC base price to $990/ton (and $1,040/ton at CSI) effective the week of February 23, 2026 – a $10/ton jump signaling accelerating confidence in domestic steel pricing power.
✅ Carbon steel imports have plunged to multi-year lows, with flat rolled imports down 42.1% for all of 2025 and coated sheet hitting its lowest daily import rate since December 2010 – dramatically reducing foreign competition for domestic mills.
✅ Lead times are stretching to 4-8 weeks as mills fill orders at current price levels, backed by robust backlogs, steady demand from infrastructure and data centers, and the protective umbrella of 50% Section 232 steel tariffs.
Sources
Nucor Corporation Investor Relations and Press Releases – https://investors.nucor.com/why-invest/default.aspx
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) – Steel Import and Production Data – https://www.steel.org/2026/02/steel-imports-down-12-6-in-2025/
AISI Weekly Raw Steel Production Reports – https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/us-raw-steel-production-is-up-14-percent-week-6-2026-1435507.htm​
Trading Economics – HRC Steel Price Data – https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/hrc-steel​
Recycling Today – Nucor Q4 2025 Earnings Report – https://www.recyclingtoday.com/news/nucor-steel-recycling-2025-q4-earnings-2026-optimism/​
Green Worldwide Shipping – Section 232 Tariff Analysis – https://www.greenworldwide.com/section-232-steel-aluminum-tariffs-rise-to-50-as-u-s-expands-reciprocal-duties-to-non-metal-content-products​
Boston Consulting Group – Steel and Aluminum Tariff Impact Assessment – https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/june-2025-update-impact-us-tariffs-50-percent-on-steel-aluminum​
Oxford Economics / Fastmarkets Circular Steel Summit 2026 – Demand Outlook – https://eurometal.net/oxford-economics-us-automotive-construction-outlook-points-to-modest-steel-demand-growth/​
SteelOrbis – US Raw Steel Production Reports – https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/us-raw-steel-production-is-up-14-percent-week-6-2026-1435507.htm​
Wall Street Journal – Nucor CEO Interview, January 2026 – https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-01-27-2026/card/steel-tariffs-not-hurting-u-s-manufacturing-nucor-chief-says-n1Z4jFv3oR5pQxTzfm0o​
U.S. Department of Commerce / Section 232 Trade Data – https://www.commerce.gov/issues/trade-enforcement/section-232-steel​
CD Recycler / AISI – Full Year 2025 Steel Import Analysis – https://www.cdrecycler.com/news/steel-imports-usa-aisi-2025-down-canada-mexico-tariffs-recycling/​
Sabresteel – US Steel Supply Forecast for 2026 – https://www.sabresteel.com/post/u-s-steel-supply-forecast-for-2026-navigating-growth-and-constraints​
ScrapMonster / AISI – Weekly Production Data – https://www.scrapmonster.com/news/steel/aisi-u.s.-steel-output-up-4.6-yoy-2026-1-27/98335​
Yahoo Finance – Nucor Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights – https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nucor-corp-nue-q4-2025-210505219.html​
IndexBox – Nucor HRC Price Analysis – https://www.indexbox.io/blog/nucor-raises-hot-rolled-coil-price-for-third-consecutive-week-in-february-2026/​
Nucor Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript – https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Nucor+Corporation+(NUE)+Releases+Q4+2025+Earnings:+Revenue+Up+YoY+but+EPS+Misses+Estimates[17]
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