Key Takeaways
✅ US steel prices are rising significantly with major producers like Nucor raising prices for the fourth consecutive week, pushing CSP HRC prices to $910/ton, while NLMK USA added another $50/ton increase on HRC and CRC with coated steel prices rising $150/ton above base prices.
✅ Strong order demand and extended lead times are stretching into January 2026, driven by tariff-induced front-loading of production and confidence in Q1 2026 demand recovery, despite current manufacturing sector weakness showing in ISM PMI data.
✅ Section 232 tariffs at 50% and domestic supply constraints are creating a favorable pricing environment for US mills while effectively pricing out competitors from Europe, Asia, and other regions, fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape of the global steel market.
Introduction: Understanding the Current State of Steel Pricing
Steel prices in November 2025 represent a critical inflection point in the commodity market. The domestic steel industry is experiencing a remarkable transition from months of downward pressure to emerging strength, driven by a confluence of factors including aggressive tariff protection, supply tightening, and strategic front-loading of orders ahead of anticipated 2026 demand recovery. As manufacturers and construction companies navigate uncertainty in the broader economy, the steel market tells a different story – one of cautious optimism and tactical positioning for the coming year.
The price dynamics unfolding in November 2025 are not driven by robust end-user demand alone, but rather by a complex interplay of trade policy, inventory management, supply constraints, and expectations about future economic conditions. Understanding these price movements requires examining the fundamental drivers reshaping the steel industry, from mill utilization rates to tariff structures, from lead time extensions to the shifting competitive advantages across domestic and international producers.
Key takeaway: The state of steel prices today is not merely a function of demand, but also of policy, strategy, and operational timing.
Steel Price Movements: The November 2025 Rally
Nucor’s Consecutive Price Increases Drive Market Sentiment
Nucor Corporation, the largest steel producer in the United States, announced its fourth consecutive week of price increases in mid-November 2025, signaling a dramatic shift in market momentum. The company raised its CSP HRC (Cold-Spec Hot Rolled Coil) base price for the week of November 17th to $910 per short ton for all producing mills, except California Steel Industries (CSI), where the base price reached $960 per ton.
This progression represents a significant departure from the relatively flat pricing environment that characterized the summer months of 2025. Nucor’s HRC prices had recently settled in the $875 range, meaning the rapid escalation represents a roughly $30-35 per ton move in just a few weeks. The rationale centers on robust order books, longer lead times, and rising demand.
Nucor’s strategic pricing typically influences other producers, setting benchmarks industrywide. Its price announcements are viewed as leading indicators by market participants and often prompt similar movements by mills across the country.
NLMK USA Follows with Aggressive Price Increases
In November 2025, NLMK USA matched this momentum, announcing a minimum $50/ton increase on hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil, its second hike in three weeks. Coated products saw a $150/ton increase over HRC base prices. With orders stretching into January 2026 and demand robust, NLMK’s decision highlights the industry’s swift response to tightening market fundamentals.
Price Momentum and Market Range Expansion
By mid-November, the US HRC spot market price had expanded to $830–865/ton, while CRC (cold-rolled coil) traded at $1,030–1,080/ton, reflecting a $60–80/ton recovery from recent lows. October’s structural steel prices averaged $2,477/ton, up slightly year-on-year after a challenging summer.
Summary: The market is experiencing synchronized price increases led by major mills, with both spot and contract pricing on the rise.
Production and Capacity Utilization: The Supply-Side Story
Domestic Raw Steel Production Rebounds
Domestic steel supply has tightened even as production recovers. By late November 2025, US mills produced 1,758,000 net tons at a 76.7% utilization rate-up from 1,740,000 tons at 76.0% the prior week. Year-to-date, output surpassed 77 million tons at a rate 3% higher than one year earlier.
The 76–77% utilization range is considered balanced: above 78% puts upward pressure on pricing, while below 75% prompts reductions in output. Capacity utilization is central to industry profitability and price sustainability.
Mill Outages and Lead Time Extensions
Recent weeks brought multiple planned mill outages-up to nine in early November-exacerbating short-term supply constraints. Major mills like Cleveland-Cliffs closed their December HRC order books early, with remaining lead times now extending into January 2026, reflecting the scramble to secure material before year-end.
Summary: Production is healthy, but outages and strong order flows are creating short-term constraints that drive price gains.
The Tariff Factor: Section 232 and Global Competitiveness
How 50% Tariffs Reshape the Competitive Landscape
Section 232 tariffs, reinstated to 50% in mid-2025, have fundamentally altered pricing by making imported steel significantly less competitive versus domestic supply. Cold-rolled coil from South Korea now lands in US ports at roughly $855/ton (after tariffs and costs), German and Italian CR coil at $1,100–$1,140/ton, compared to domestic coil at $1,040/ton.
The average effective steel tariff rate rose from under 5% earlier in the year (due to exemptions) to a punitive 50%, restoring the original intent of import protection. These tariffs have curbed foreign offerings and shifted purchasing decisively toward domestic mills.
Manufacturing Strength and Demand Drivers: Mixed Signals
Infrastructure Funding Releases Following the Shutdown
Following the resolution of recent government shutdown disruptions, there have been several notable developments in the release and approval of federal funding for infrastructure projects. In October 2025, Congress moved to avert a further shutdown and approved transportation spending allocations for fiscal year 2025, safeguarding billions in federal dollars slated for roads, bridges, transit, and utilities nationwide.
Additionally, federal agencies continued to advance major discretionary infrastructure grants. The BUILD (Better Utilizing Investments to Leverage Development) program announced fresh guidance in mid-November, clarifying that significant funds-over $1.5 billion for fiscal year 2025-are available for critical capital projects in both urban and rural regions. Of this, at least five percent ($75 million) is dedicated specifically to planning, design, and preparation for future projects, ensuring that states and cities can continue modernizing essential transportation networks despite earlier delays.
Further, the Federal Transit Administration published updated policy guidance for the Capital Investment Grants program on November 12, 2025. These rules immediately widened eligibility and confirmed ongoing federal support for New Starts, Small Starts, and Core Capacity Improvements, providing greater certainty for upcoming transit expansions and upgrades across the country.
These actions demonstrate the federal government’s commitment to reinvigorating infrastructure investment, particularly as construction and steel-consuming industries recover from supply chain disruptions and tighter mill lead times. For steel producers and contractors, these funding releases provide confidence that demand for steel in public works will remain strong throughout 2026 and beyond, supporting ongoing price resilience.
Key takeaway: Post-shutdown funding approvals and new grant programs ensure that US infrastructure spending remains a vital driver for steel demand, helping counteract the temporary slowdowns experienced earlier in the year and sustaining long-term market confidence.
S&P Global PMI Signals Manufacturing Expansion
Manufacturing data in late 2025 is mixed. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5 in October, showing expansion, while the more established ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating contraction. The divergence suggests varied strength across sectors, with some industries booming and others lagging.
Infrastructure Spending and Construction Sector Outlook
Ongoing infrastructure investments-especially transport and utilities-continue to underpin steel demand. The price of structural steel beams, for example, jumped 6% from June to September 2025, reflecting robust spending despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
Raw Material Costs and Energy Considerations
Scrap Metal Prices and EAF Operations
Steel scrap-a key input for electric arc furnace (EAF) mills-remained stable in November. Pricing for shredded auto scrap hovered near $365/ton and HMS #1 at $315/ton, enabling EAF producers to maintain predictable costs. Scrap prices are critical to EAF profitability, as these mills now dominate US steel production.
Energy Cost Pressures and Their Impact
Energy remains a significant factor but less volatile than in previous years. US producers benefit from relatively low-cost natural gas versus European competitors. Stable input costs bolster margins and give domestic mills an operational edge, particularly when paired with tariffs that limit imports.
Lead Times, Inventory Management, and Market Dynamics
Extended Lead Times Signal Capacity Constraints
Lead times for HRC extended to 3–5 weeks in mid-November, with specific mills quoting even longer periods into January 2026. The shortage creates a feedback loop: extended lead times push buyers to order sooner, tightening supply further.
n addition to the typical mill lead times seen in steel production scheduling, the industry in late 2025 faced a wave of significant maintenance activities. Throughout October and the first half of November, there were reports of nine major maintenance shutdowns among domestic steel producers. These planned outages were distributed across different regions and affected several high-capacity mills, each requiring several days or weeks for equipment upgrades, safety checks, and process optimizations.
Such interruptions are essential for long-term mill health, but when clustered together during a period of recovering demand and increasing order placement, they become a key contributor to market tightness. Each shutdown temporarily reduces available production output, leaving less material for immediate shipment and pushing more orders into future delivery slots. As a result, mills have quoted lead times stretching typically from 3–5 weeks and in some cases into early January 2026, as customers rush to secure product before the end of the year and existing inventories remain low.
These back-to-back outages put additional pressure on already constrained production schedules. Service centers and end-users vie for available material, creating a self-reinforcing cycle: buyers accelerate orders out of concern for supply gaps, which in turn further extends mill lead times. As mills complete their maintenance cycles and resume full operations, some relief may come to the market-yet in the interim, buyers and planners should anticipate that extended lead times will remain a central feature of the steel market environment well into the new year.
Year-End Inventory Positioning
Concerns over year-end inventory and taxation limit service center purchases, with many choosing to restock fully in January. This dynamic could produce a post-holiday surge as buyers aim to take advantage of new-year demand and avoid elevated year-end pricing.
Summary: Expect increased volatility as buyers manage inventory ahead of the new year and lead times remain extended.
Global Market Context and Import Dynamics
Reduced Import Penetration Supports Domestic Pricing
Import levels have dropped sharply-down more than 50% from September 2024 to September 2025. Tariff barriers, especially against former top suppliers like Canada and Mexico, have made domestic steel the de facto choice. This has removed the price ceiling imports traditionally imposed on US markets.
Global Supply Dynamics and China’s Overcapacity
While US prices soar, global steel remains in surplus due to declining Chinese construction demand. Chinese exports continue to pressure Asian prices ($500–$550/ton range), but US tariffs have insulated domestic prices ($850–$910/ton). European prices also lag but could strengthen with fiscal stimulus and new carbon adjustment policies.
Summary: The US market now operates almost independently of global pricing, shielded from oversupply by policy intervention.
Futures Markets and Forward Pricing Signals
CME HRC Futures Contract Settlements
Futures markets show continued strength:
- December 2025: $854/ton
- January 2026: $868/ton
- February 2026: $880/ton
- March 2026: $881/ton
This contango pattern-where forward prices rise over spot-signals expectations for sustained strength or possible further increases in Q1 2026.
Summary: Futures markets anticipate tight supply and elevated prices into 2026, reinforcing bullish sentiment among producers.
Key Takeaways: What These Price Movements Mean
For Steel Producers
Higher prices and extended lead times boost mill profitability, especially for EAF operators. Nucor and others’ continued capital investment underscores industry confidence in the durability of this environment.
For Customers and End-Users
Buyers face hard choices: buy now and risk peak pricing, or delay and risk supply shortages. Construction and manufacturing firms must balance price risk with inventory management, especially if prices surge further after the new year.
For the Broader Economy
Tariff-driven price increases lift mill earnings but raise costs for downstream manufacturers and builders. Producer price indices confirm that steel’s input costs have soared, adding to inflationary pressures across the value chain.
Conclusion: Strategic Positioning for the Steel Market in 2026
The November 2025 steel market is defined by price recovery, capacity tightness, and the powerful influence of tariffs. Major mills have successfully executed price increases; lead times stretch deep into winter; buyers are strategizing under pressure.
The coming months will clarify whether price levels are sustainable or simply an artifact of temporary demand distortions and policy support. The critical questions: Will tariffs remain durable? Is Q1 2026 demand real or tactical? How will downstream industries adjust?
Reflect on this: As supply chains continue adapting to this tariff-protected environment, will your organization seek stability with domestic contracts or gamble on volatility by being flexible?
Disclaimer
The content provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. Readers should seek consultation with qualified professionals before making any financial, investment, or legal decisions. We disclaim any liability for losses, damages, or adverse outcomes resulting from decisions made based on the information presented herein.
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