Key Takeaways

• The Nucor CSP moved into a new band this week, but the $5 increase is not the story buyers should be reading. The setup behind the move, detailed in the full analysis below, explains why mills still hold the leverage.
• Construction is the indicator that decides whether a steel rally has a foundation or just a ceiling, and the latest residential and nonresidential data are sending different signals. Members get the breakdown of which one matters more right now.
• A specific inventory condition buried in the homebuilder data is the variable most buyers are overlooking, and it changes the math on how the next several months play out. The complete framework is inside.

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