Key Takeaways
- Construction spending remains historically elevated, with the annualized rate holding at $2.19 trillion in January 2026 – posting its second consecutive year-over-year gain after ten straight quarterly declines. Public highway outlays rose 3.3 percent from December, providing particularly firm support for structural and long-product steel demand.
- Housing starts, automotive sales, agricultural equipment orders, and HVAC shipments together paint a picture of an uneven but still-active steel consuming environment in early 2026. While some categories softened from late 2025 peaks, none has entered a recessionary contraction, and several show meaningful sequential improvement.
- Domestic supply-side conditions remain distinctly favorable for mills: Section 232 tariffs were raised from 25 percent to 50 percent in June 2025 and remain intact, hot-rolled coil prices are trading near $1,059 per metric ton as of late March 2026 – up roughly 19 percent year-over-year – and ferrous scrap posted a sharp 7.5 percent gain in February, supporting both producer margins and pricing discipline.
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Sources
US Census Bureau, Construction Spending Survey, January 2026 — https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
US Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, January 2026 — https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html
ISM Manufacturing PMI, February 2026 — https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
Cox Automotive, US Auto Sales Estimates, February 2026 — https://www.coxautoinc.com
Association of Equipment Manufacturers, Tractor and Combine Sales Data, February 2026 — https://www.aem.org
Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), January 2026 Shipment Data — https://www.ahrinet.org
Dodge Construction Network, Dodge Momentum Index, February 2026 — https://www.construction.com
Trading Economics, US Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Price — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/hot-rolled-coil-steel
Fastmarkets, US Ferrous Scrap Price Report, February-March 2026 — https://www.fastmarkets.com
Reuters, US Manufacturing Activity and Steel Tariffs Reporting, February-March 2026 — https://www.reuters.com
National Association of Home Builders, Single-Family Housing Outlook — https://www.nahb.org
US Department of Agriculture, Farm Income Forecasts — https://www.ers.usda.gov
Disclaimer
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