Key Takeaways

• Nucor held its CSP HRC base flat at $1,130 per ton for the week of June 29, yet one specific flat rolled import category posted a sharp month-over-month reversal that raises a direct question about whether the published number reflects the spot floor buyers will actually transact at.
• The Architecture Billings Index fell to its lowest reading since January, with one region and one end-use segment dropping to levels that historically precede a measurable shift in mill order books two to three quarters out.
• Q1 GDP printed above the prior quarter, yet the composition of that growth narrows the demand case for flat rolled in a way that matters more for the second-half order book than the headline figure suggests.

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