Key Takeaways:
- Construction planning, tracked by the Dodge Momentum Index, is cooling in early 2026 but remains at historically high levels, pointing to slower near-term activity yet a solid pipeline for future steel demand.
- Residential housing construction is rebounding, with January 2026 housing starts up 7.2% from December and 9.5% above a year earlier, driven by multi-family projects that are especially steel intensive.
- HVAC equipment shipments – another key steel consuming segment tied to construction and housing – are under pressure after a weak 2025, suggesting softer short term steel demand from mechanical systems even as long term fundamentals remain intact.
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SOURCES
Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in February — Dodge Construction Network
Dodge Momentum Index Declines 6% in January — Dodge Construction Network
Dodge Momentum Index Grows 7% in December — Dodge Construction Network
Construction Planning Fell 6.3% to Kick Off 2026 — Construction Dive
Dodge Momentum Index Pulls Back as Planning Normalizes — Steel Market Update
New Residential Construction — January 2026 (Press Release) — U.S. Census Bureau / HUD
New Residential Construction January 2026 (PDF) — U.S. Census Bureau
Single-Family Starts Remain Soft in January on Affordability Concerns — NAHB
Housing Starts ‘Unseasonably High,’ but Overall Data Is a ‘Mixed Bag’ — RISMedia
2026 Housing Outlook: Ongoing Challenges, Cautious Optimism and Incremental Gains — NAHB
Multifamily Market Expected to Cool in 2026 as Vacancies Rise — NAHB
2026 Apartment Housing Outlook — National Apartment Association
AHRI Monthly Shipments — Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute
AHRI December 2025 Statistical Release (PDF) — AHRI
AHRI September 2025 Statistical Release (PDF) — AHRI
Carrier’s Residential Sales Plunge Nearly 40% in Q4 — ACHR News
Soft Residential Demand Carries Into the New Year — ACHR News
Commercial HVAC Growth Offsets Residential Slowdown — ACHR News
Carrier Reports 2025 Results and Announces 2026 Outlook — Carrier Global
United States Housing Starts — Trading Economics
Housing Starts Increased 7.2% in January — ABA Banking Journal
Housing Starts Increased to 1.487 Million Annual Rate in January — Calculated Risk
Dodge Momentum Index – February 2026 — YouTube
Charted: 20 Years of HVAC Shipments — Homepros
AHRI Releases Latest Heating and Cooling Equipment Shipment Data — HVAC Products (Nov 2025)
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